On the menu today: This week launches Jim’s Kinda Unplanned Election 2024 Swing-State Tour, taking me to three of the seven states that matter in this year’s election. First, I note that Democrats’ anxiety attacks about the presidential election are accelerating. Then, a deep dive into the Philadelphia suburbs, and what a Republican must do to win the Keystone State. Then, further evidence that the map of competitive Senate races is not expanding the way the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee contended it was a few weeks ago.
Democrats Are Sweating
Kohler, Wis. — Welcome to Jim’s Kinda Unplanned Election 2024 Swing-State Tour, where I’m in America’s Dairyland for the Bradley Impact Conference.
Last Wednesday, this newsletter told you, “The Democrats’ Anxiety Vibe Shift Is Here.” A bunch of the usual suspects said that couldn’t be true, and that I was falling for spin.
In the five days or so since then:
- Trump has tightened the gap in national polls from NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. The best result for Harris was the ABC poll, which had “Harris at 50 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent among likely voters in the national survey, with a similar 49 percent to 47 percent result among all registered voters.” If you’re a female Democratic presidential candidate running against Trump, a two-percentage-point lead in the national popular vote may not be even close to enough.
- CNN describes Harris as “struggling to restore momentum in a neck-and-neck race to Election Day. . . . Dread is growing among Democrats that the euphoria over Harris’ entry into the race in July, her successful convention in August and her debate performance the following month have not translated yet into a decisive lead over Trump.”
- MSNBC Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski, in a monologue Friday: “This morning and also all week, we’ve been talking about the frustration among a lot of Democrats that maybe the message isn’t breaking through to key voters. I mean, the polls seem so close every time a new one comes out, neck and neck. And there’s this fear that Donald Trump is poised for victory. I think it’s fair for Democrats to be incredibly depressed. I think it’s fair for them to be discouraged.”
- Politico’s Playbook has published the “anxious Dem’s guide to a coin-toss election.”
- New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd asked, “Where Is the Fierce Urgency of Beating Trump?”
- Ezra Klein is telling his readers to “ignore the polls.”
- The Pod Save America guys titled their latest episode, “Why you shouldn’t panic about the polls.”
You would think that liberal columnists’ readers were out on a ledge.
Did you ever think you would see the day when liberal columnist Joe Klein was emphasizing how small the African-American and Latino vote is?
Even if blacks and browns are slipping a bit toward the Republican Party and the show business antics of Donald Trump, they are called minorities for a reason: there aren’t very many of them. There are more Latinos than blacks, though you’ d never know it from the news coverage, which is obsessed with black grievance.
For what it’s worth, the 2020 electorate, according to the exit polls, broke down as 67 percent white, 13 percent black, 13 percent Latino, 4 percent Asian, 4 percent other.
Again, does this mean Donald Trump is guaranteed to win? No. But seven swing states being neck-and-neck, three weeks before Election Day, is not where Democrats thought they would be. They’re sweating, and they have good reason to sweat.
Meanwhile, over in Bucks County . . .
The first stop on Jim’s Kinda Unplanned Election 2024 Swing-State Tour was Bucks County, Pa. I could attempt to argue that this corner of the state deserves particular attention as a classic suburban swing county in the Keystone State. But to be honest, I visit it every year around this time because my in-laws live there.
Nonetheless, it is a swing county and an intriguing measuring stick. This year, between my in-laws’ house and Solebury Orchards, you see so many Trump signs — and Dave McCormick for Senate signs and reelect Brian Fitzpatrick to Congress signs — you would think the locals were celebrating a holiday named “GOPmas.”
(With that said, I did like the yard sign that said, “Kamala Harris, Obviously.”)
The city of Philadelphia has four “collar counties,” Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery. The four get lumped together, but Bucks is much more competitive than the rest; in 2016, Hillary Clinton won Bucks County by 2,699 votes (out of more than 345,000 cast), but she won Chester by more than 25,000 votes, Delaware County by more than 66,000 votes, and Montgomery County by 93,000 votes.
(A contrast that may interest the Dave McCormick campaign: In 2016, as Trump was winning the state but losing the collar counties, Pat Toomey won Bucks County by more than 18,000 votes, won Chester by more than 6,000, lost Delaware County by more than 37,000 votes, and lost Montgomery by more than 47,000 votes on his way to reelection. A Republican Senate candidate can outperform Trump here.)
Four years ago, I saw a lot of Trump signs in Bucks County, too. But by 2020, Bucks was less friendly to Trump; Biden won the county by more than 17,000 votes (out of nearly 400,000 votes cast), won Chester by more than 53,000 votes, Delaware County by more than 88,000 votes, and Montgomery by more than 134,000 votes.
Overall, Trump won the state of Pennsylvania in 2016 by 44,292 votes; he lost the state by 80,555 votes in 2020. The Democratic margin in the collar counties in that span increased from 186,000 votes to 292,000 votes.
In short, if you’re a Republican, you don’t need to win the collar counties, but you need to keep them close.
Today, Trump will attend a town hall at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center and Fairgrounds in Montgomery County.
The Philadelphia Inquirer offers a bit more detail on Bucks:
[Bucks] is the only Philadelphia collar county Trump has spent time in this year. In addition to Vance’s rally, Trump held a fundraiser in Newtown in April.
It’s also the only one with more registered Republicans than Democrats. As of Monday, just under 42 percent of Bucks County’s voters were registered Republicans, while 41 percent were Democrats. The other 17 percent were either third party or unaffiliated.
Republicans in the county say this year feels different than prior cycles.
“The big difference I see is the Trump supporters are willing to put signs on their lawn and they’re not afraid to be seen,” said Pat Poprik, the chair of the Bucks County GOP.
The ubiquitousness of Trump yard signs in the heart of swing-state suburbia makes me wonder if there will be a significant “shy Trump voter” effect in the polls this year. If you’re willing to put out a yard sign, I’m not sure why you would be hesitant to tell a pollster your true preference. Trump’s been at the center of our politics for the better part of nine years now. Saying you support Trump is probably much less shocking and/or stigmatized than it was eight or four years ago.
Trump is scheduled to hold an event in Bucks County next weekend. “Democrats have not yet dispatched Vice President Kamala Harris or Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to Bucks County, but several surrogates have been in the area, including Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff and actress Jennifer Garner.” (Don’t laugh; I’d take a visit from Jennifer Garner over Tim Walz any day of the week.)
There are other little signs popping up — no pun intended — that Pennsylvania is not falling into place for the Democrats this year:
- The Philadelphia Inquirer studied the city’s wards and how they changed from 2016 to 2020, and found, “Philadelphia precincts with the highest proportion of residents in poverty shifted furthest to the right. Precincts with the lowest poverty rates shifted furthest left.”
- NBC News’ Chuck Todd predicted McCormick would beat Bob Casey.
ADDENDUM:
Shot: A DSCC press release, September 26, 2024: “Today the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is announcing a new multi-million dollar investment in television advertising for the Texas and Florida Senate races. Additional funding for television advertising in these states will likely be added as the cycle continues.”
Chaser: NBC News, October 12: “Despite promises to spend millions in both states, the DSCC has so far not made any ad reservations in Florida.”
Chaser to the Chaser: A new Mason-Dixon poll of the Sunshine State finds “incumbent Republican Rick Scott is ahead by seven points against Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.”