On the menu today: Contemplating six — okay, eight — options for Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate. If you are a conservative, none of them are particularly good, but of the big names being tossed around, one is head and shoulders above the rest, which all but guarantees Harris won’t pick him.
The Big Kamala Harris Running-Mate Audition
Over at the other place I write for, they surveyed the opinion columnists about potential running-mate options for Kamala Harris and asked us to rank them in order of who would be the wisest choice.
Of course, there are a couple of measuring sticks for “wisest.” Does “wisest” mean the person most prepared to be a heartbeat away from the presidency? Does “wisest” mean figuring out who is most likely to help Harris in reaching 270 electoral votes to win the election? Is there a figure who’s more likely to make Harris an effective president?
If you are a conservative, none of these Democratic figures are particularly good; they’re just varying degrees of bad, at least policy-wise. There are one or two exceptions, like Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro’s willingness to condemn protesters outside an Israeli-owned falafel shop in Philadelphia as antisemitic. (He also supported Pennsylvania’s anti-BDS law and condemned University of Pennsylvania president Liz Magill’s testimony before Congress. This is foreshadowing.)
I decided to stick with the simplest criterion: which running mate helps get Harris to 270 electoral votes. Take a look at that electoral map. The polling is still digesting the ascension of Harris, but for now the map still looks tough for Democrats. Neither the three “Blue Wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) nor the four “Sun Belt” states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina) are locked down. Biden’s recent slide made once deep-blue states like Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire look shaky. Harris probably brings those states back into the fold, but that can’t be guaranteed yet. (Barack and Michelle Obama endorsed Harris yesterday, and the former president mentioned that she and the Democrats are the “underdogs.”)
First, two figures who deserve honorable mentions, and/or ought to get vetted:
Wes Moore, governor of Maryland: Okay, he’s too new to politics (elected in 2022) but he’s got the golden resume: troubled youth from the time his father died until his mom enrolled him in the Valley Forge Military Academy. From there it was one accomplishment and climb to another: BA from Johns Hopkins, earned a Rhodes Scholarship which took him to Oxford University, an internship at the Department of Homeland Security, captain in the 82nd Airborne, White House fellow to Condoleezza Rice, investment banker on Wall Street, CEO of a charitable foundation, named to the University of Maryland Board of Regents by Republican governor Larry Hogan, and buddies with Oprah Winfrey. He’s going to be on a Democratic presidential ticket someday, it’s just a question of when.
Tony Evers, governor of Wisconsin: I know every Republican in the Badger State is gasping, and wondering why the heck Evers would even get a second glance. Yes, he’s 72 years old, and his personality is a black hole compared to those of most of the other names on this list. He’s boring, old, reliable, and corny — “I don’t get wound up about much, my excitement scale goes from ‘holy mackerel’ and maxes out at ‘heck yes.’” But if elected, Harris will be making history as the first woman president, so maybe it’s a good idea to have a running mate who’s boring, old, reliable, and corny. Evers would be sort of a Biden to her Obama. He’s won in Wisconsin twice, and as of late June had a 57 percent overall approval rating, and a 60 percent approval among independents.
Six: Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota. The one thing you can say about the Minnesota governor is that he looks the part — 60 years old, bald, hefty — like the guy who shows up to help fix your refrigerator. He has a better biography than folks might expect — 24 years in the Army National Guard, Nebraska’s “Citizen-Soldier of the Year” in 1989, taught English over in China, high-school geography teacher, and football coach. But the one Midwestern blue state that didn’t look all that endangered in the past months was Minnesota. I guess the hope would be that Walz, as a Midwesterner, would help out in the Blue Wall states and Iowa, which, honestly, isn’t looking all that competitive. I’m not sure Walz gets you anything that any of the other names on this list can’t.
Five: Mark Kelly, senator from Arizona. Apparently, I am completely out of step with my Post colleagues, as Kelly was named the top pick by seven columnists; six preferred my top pick. (Is it the astronaut jacket? It must be the astronaut jacket.)
I’m surprised there’s so much buzz around the Arizona senator, as he’s a relatively vanilla pick — doesn’t do any harm, and likely helps in Arizona, but keep in mind Arizona has looked awfully red for much of the past year. He’s got a terrific biography — 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm, four trips into space, commander of Space Shuttle Endeavour’s final flight, supportive husband of a congresswoman wife who was shot — but he’s been fairly quiet in the Senate. He’d be a fine pick, but he probably doesn’t alter the dynamics of the race much, or the Electoral College map beyond Arizona.
Four: Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky. An intriguing choice, as Beshear is the latest Great Southern Democratic Hope, following in the footsteps of the likes of Jaime Harrison, Beto O’Rourke, Harold Ford Jr., and Alison Lundergan Grimes. But Beshear ranks behind some other options because Kentucky would be really hard to flip — Trump won here, 62 percent to 36 percent, in 2020. He’s straight out of central casting; in fact, he looks like the guy they get to play the vice president in some movie or TV drama. But Beshear is political royalty; from 1974 to 2015, his father, Steve Beshear, was a state legislator, state attorney general, lieutenant governor, and then governor.
Note Charlie’s 2023 observation about Beshear’s role in a deeply culturally conservative state:
During this year’s session, the state legislature overrode every single veto that Beshear offered up. As Dominic suggests, voters in Kentucky “really like Beshears” and they’re also pretty conservative, and under Kentucky’s current arrangement, they get to have it both ways: They get the Beshear family in charge of the executive branch, and the Republican Party in control of the state. As a policy guy, I know which I’d rather have.
It’s unclear whether being state political royalty would be a significant weakness. Beshear’s first attack on J. D. Vance included a false smear; it’s clear the Kentucky governor wants the gig badly.
Three: Roy Cooper, governor of North Carolina. All year long I have doubted that North Carolina was a swing state; Biden was a much weaker candidate in 2024 than he was in 2020, and I just didn’t see Biden winning any state that he lost in 2020. Democrats frequently come close in the Tarheel State and then fall about a percentage point short. But Cooper might change the equation. In seven (!) statewide races since 2000, Cooper has won all of them. Flipping 16 electoral votes from the “likely red” column to the “likely blue” column would give Harris a lot more breathing room in other swing states. A southerner, a deacon, and a hockey fan, Cooper balances the ticket.
And he’s term-limited, so he’s got nothing else to do starting in January 2025.
Two: Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan. Yes, there’s some risk to a ticket with two women. But securing Michigan’s 15 electoral votes would be the next-best thing to locking Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. And the only figure more beloved by the mainstream media than Whitmer these days is Harris herself.
Whitmer is still relatively popular, although I notice her approval rating is at 52 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. There are consistent hints that Whitmer is ambitious and envisions herself in the Oval Office someday, which may not make her the ideal team player. But all of those potential future headaches are probably worth living with if Whitmer can deliver Michigan and get Harris to 270.
One: Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania. For Harris, the formula is simple. If she wins two or three of the “Blue Wall” states, she’s very likely to finish with 270 or more electoral votes; if she doesn’t win them, she’s almost certainly toast. Selecting Shapiro is likely to shore up the Blue Wall state with the most electoral votes (19).
Shapiro is Mr. Suburbs, having spent a long time working and representing Montgomery County, Pa. As governor, he’s supported school vouchers. Not only is he not a bomb-thrower or provocateur, he’s capable of genuine graciousness to those on the other side of the political aisle. Check out Shapiro’s tribute to Corey Comperatore in a press conference the day after the shooting in Butler, Pa.:
We lost a fellow Pennsylvanian last night: Corey Comperatore. I just spoke to Corey’s wife and Corey’s two daughters. Corey was a girl dad. Corey was a firefighter. Corey went to church every Sunday. Corey loved his community. And most especially, Corey loved his family.
Corey was an avid supporter of the former president and was so excited to be there last night with him in the community. I asked Corey’s wife if it would be okay for me to share that we spoke, and she said yes. And she also asked that I share with all of you that Corey died a hero. That Corey dove on his family to protect them last night at this rally. Corey was the very best of us. May his memory be a blessing.
In 2020, Joe Biden won 3,458,229 votes in Pennsylvania. That same year, running for state attorney general, Shapiro won 2,243 more votes than Biden did.
His approval rating in the state is still high (57 percent), with much more support among Republicans and independents than your average Democrat.
The anti-Israel grassroots who are upset about a potential Jewish vice president can go take a long walk off a short Gaza Pier.
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it yesterday, a quick review of the sudden memory-holing and semantic arguments around Harris’s time as the “border czar”:
“Well, Wolf, we’ve checked this out thoroughly, and it turns out that a ‘czar’ is a title historically used by Slavic monarchs. The term is derived from the Latin word ‘caesar,’ which referred to a ruler with the same rank as a Roman emperor. ‘Czar’ is spelled two ways, and its variants were the official titles in the First Bulgarian Empire, which existed from the year 681 to 1018. Not only would Kamala Harris not be born for nearly another millennium, she’s not even Bulgarian. What’s more, there’s no evidence that Harris ever wore a crown, sat on a throne, or carried a scepter. So we’re giving the Republican claim that Harris was Biden’s so-called border czar a rating of ‘Pants on Fire,’ because it’s not even remotely true.”