On the menu today: We glance up from the Republican presidential-primary season’s coverage to notice that two heavily armed Muslim countries are now launching military strikes in each other’s territory. Taiwan has a new incoming president, and for that country to deter a Chinese invasion, promised U.S. arms sales must get delivered a lot faster. And one new poll shows a reason for Nikki Haley fans to feel optimistic about New Hampshire, while two other polls show Trump winning the Granite State primary comfortably.
Oh, Hey, No Big Deal, Just Iran and Pakistan Shooting at Each Other
On a regular basis, news comes across the wires that seems like it ought to make us sit up and take notice — like Iran, one of America’s preeminent foes and a country knocking on the door of developing a nuclear weapon, launching military strikes against targets within the territory of Pakistan, which is a complicated U.S. semi-ally that has an estimated 170 nuclear warheads.
Baluchistan is a region where the Iranian, Pakistani, and Afghan borders meet, stretching from the southernmost chunk of Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea, and encompassing the southwestern chunk of Pakistan and a southeastern chunk of Iran. Among the Baluchis are plenty of militant groups who want independence or just plain hate the Iranian or Pakistani government.
On Tuesday, the Iranian military launched missile and drone attacks against what it contended were targets in Pakistan associated with Jaish ul-Adl, a Sunni Muslim Baluch separatist organization. The Pakistani government contended the strikes killed two children and wounded three others and called them an “unprovoked violation” of its airspace. Pakistan recalled its ambassador to Iran and has blocked Tehran’s envoy from returning — less than ideal for the prospects of talking down either side from escalating the conflict further, or minimizing any confusion or misunderstanding. Sure, Iran thinks it’s only striking at Baluch separatists, but does the Pakistani military know that? How does the Pakistani military know that Iran isn’t directly attacking it?
Pakistan’s promised reprisal arrived in the early morning hours today. From Reuters:
Pakistan said it used rockets and drones to strike separatist Baloch militants inside Iran on Thursday, in a retaliatory strike two days after Tehran said it attacked the bases of another group within Pakistani territory.
Iranian media said several missiles hit a village in the Sistan-Baluchestan province that borders Pakistan, killing at least nine people, including four children. . . .
A senior Pakistani security official told Reuters the military was on “extremely” high alert and would meet any “misadventure” from the Iranian side forcefully.
You may recall that one of the Biden administration’s key priorities in all these foreign trouble spots — from Ukraine to Gaza to the Red Sea and Yemen — is to avoid “escalation.” On paper, that philosophy sounds wise and prudent, but the problem is that the other guys — whether it’s Vladimir Putin, or Hamas, or the Houthis — operate under no such restrictions. As we see with this conflict, when Tehran wants to hit somebody, it just hits somebody. It doesn’t spend much time worrying about whether its military strike is going to be perceived as too belligerent or escalatory. It always has the initiative; we’re always carefully measuring our response to make sure no one thinks we’re being too aggressive.
Also note that Iran launched eleven ballistic missiles against targets in Iraq Monday, and the missiles landed “near” the U.S. consulate in Erbil. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it “used a Kheibar Shekan (Castle Buster) missile, which can travel up to 1,450km (900 miles), to target Idlib.” Again, from Reuters:
At least four civilians were killed and six injured in the strikes, the Kurdistan government’s security council said.
Multimillionaire Kurdish businessman Peshraw Dizayee and several members of his family were among the dead, killed when at least one rocket crashed into their home, Iraqi security and medical sources said.
Dizayee, who was close to the ruling Barzani clan, owned businesses that led major real estate projects in Kurdistan.
Additionally, one rocket had fallen on the house of a senior Kurdish intelligence official and another on a Kurdish intelligence centre and air traffic at Erbil airport was halted, the security sources said.
The official line from the Pentagon is that Iran’s missile strike was not targeting Americans:
Q: And one question on the Iranian attacks on Erbil — what’s your assessment on that — attacks? Because it was almost (inaudible) miles away from your bases in Erbil. And why you didn’t use your anti-missile system — defense system to repel some of these missiles that were attacking civilian areas?
GEN. RYDER: So, as I understand it, none of these strikes were targeting U.S. personnel or U.S. facilities. You’ve heard the Iraqi government respond. I’ll refer you to that. My understanding is that these strikes were not precise, and, you know, just leave it there. And I need to get to the other side of the room.
Entirely separate from its support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, the Iranian government has in the past week launched missile strikes against three countries: Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan. The Iranian regime is not deterred from military aggression; if anything, Iranian leaders seem to be getting bolder and more reckless.
President Biden, during his brief exchange with reporters Saturday*:
Q: Do you have a message to Iran in the face of all these attacks from the Houthis?
THE PRESIDENT: I’ve delivered — we’ve delivered it privately, and we’re confident we’re well prepared.
I guess we see how the regime in Tehran feels about Biden’s private message.
Meanwhile, over in Taiwan . . .
The Taiwanese have a new president-elect, current vice president Lai Ching-te. I don’t think it’s our job to tell the Taiwanese whom to elect, but for those of us who want to see Taiwan remain independent and free, the Taiwanese have made a good choice. Despite what the party names might lead you to believe, the Democratic Progressive Party is a little tougher on the regime in Beijing, and the Chinese Nationalist Party is a little too optimistic that disagreements with Xi Jinping can be worked out. At least that’s my take, but your mileage may vary.
Lai Ching-te says he will continue beefing up Taiwan’s military, which strikes me as the right move to deter a Chinese invasion in the coming years. But there’s a significant snag in that we, the United States, are way behind on the deliveries of weapons systems that we promised Taiwan years ago.
Back in October, two Republican members of Congress — Mike Gallagher, chairman of the Select Committee on China, and Young Kim, chairwoman of the Subcommittee on the Indo-Pacific — wrote to Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro demanding answers about what’s delaying the weapons production, never mind the delivery. We’re talking delays measured in years, not months:
In October 2020, the Department of Defense announced the sale of 400 ground-launched Harpoon missiles and 100 Harpoon Coastal Defense System (HCDS) launch systems and radar units to Taiwan. While the Navy entered into a manufacturing contract for the production of the HCDSs in March 2022, it was not until April 2023 — two and half years after the sale was announced — that it did the same for the production of the Harpoon missiles. It is unclear when deliveries of all the Harpoon missiles and launchers will be made or when the Defense Department plans to provide adequate training to Taiwanese forces to use them. Some reports suggest deliveries of the critical missiles will not be completed until 2029 — well after 2027, the year by which President Xi ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan.
In addition, the sale of 60 air-launched Harpoon missiles, for use by Taiwan’s F-16 fighter jets, was approved in September 2022. Taiwan signed a formal Letter of Acceptance (LOA) finalizing the deal in December 2022. Some ten months later, the Navy has not even made a Request for Proposal asking contractors to submit bids for the production of these missiles. Due to inflation and rising costs across the defense industry, such delays increase the risk that the budget set in the LOA will be exceeded. If this happens, the LOA will need to be modified to add additional funding, which would in turn further delay the production and delivery of the missiles to Taiwan. . . .
The Department of Defense announced the sale of 135 SLAM-ER missiles to Taiwan in October 2020. Taiwan signed a LOA for the missiles in December 2022. As is the case for the airlaunched Harpoon missiles, the Navy still has not made a Request for Proposal soliciting production bids for the SLAM-ERs. If the budget set in the LOA is exceeded due to inflation and rising manufacturing costs, the production and delivery of these missiles would be pushed further into the future.
As the Wall Street Journal notes, “Other pending deliveries include 29 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launchers, or Himars, that were ordered in two batches in 2020 and 2022, as well as MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones, tanks, torpedoes and other missiles.”
We say we want to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but our government and defense contractors don’t always act like it.
Meanwhile, up in New Hampshire . . .
After I was accused of being too negative about DeSantis’s chances in Iowa, it is now time for me to rain on Nikki Haley’s parade. Yes, the latest survey from American Research Group — unfortunate acronym, “ARG” — has Haley and Trump tied in New Hampshire with 40 percent each. But the Saint Anselm poll has Trump at 52 percent and Haley at 38 percent. And the new Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe tracking poll has Trump at 50 percent, Haley at 34 percent, and DeSantis at 5 percent.
The good news for Haley is that a good chunk of the folks who were supporting Chris Christie have shifted to her. But the departure of Vivek Ramaswamy means that most of his supporters will shift to Trump.
If the results are more like what we see in the Saint Anselm and Suffolk surveys, Haley’s going to face the same tough questions that DeSantis did after Iowa. If she can’t win New Hampshire — and her home state of South Carolina doesn’t look so good, either — which state does she actually win?
*Because you know this president doesn’t do formal press conferences or sit-down interviews anymore.
ADDENDA: Over in that other Washington publication, I note that we’ve probably seen the last Republican presidential-primary debate of the cycle, and that the general-election debates in the fall don’t look like a sure thing, either.
If you’re wondering why allegedly anti-war organization Code Pink is rooting for the Houthis as that group launches missiles at civilian vessels, it’s because they’re both supported by the regime in Beijing.
Ron DeSantis laments, “The media was against us. They were writing our obituary months ago.” If only there had been some way for DeSantis and his team to see that coming!
If you’re going to the Georgia Public Policy Foundation luncheon today, I look forward to seeing you there. And if you’re in the Atlanta area . . . hey, why not skip work today?