On the menu today: a wide-ranging interview with Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin and a deep dive into his ambitious legislative agenda for the coming year. By a lot of measures, the Virginia economy is thriving, but Youngkin worries about the state — pardon me, “commonwealth” — losing some of its edges over neighboring states, and building a thriving economy isn’t just a matter of creating job openings; you need qualified, trained workers to fill those jobs. Also, I get the feeling that the governor is getting tired of being asked by people like me if he’s going to run for president; his denials, at least for the 2024 cycle, are seeming more and more definitive.
Youngkin: Wrapping Up Year One, Prepping for a Big Year Two
I had a chance to speak to Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin on Monday; he’s wrapping up a busy 2022 and preparing for what could be a make-or-break 2023, aiming to get a wide-ranging agenda through the Virginia state legislature.
“We’re working on tax cuts for Virginians, we’re working on investing in education and making sure we have the high standards that kids deserve,” Youngkin said. “We’re rolling out Operation Bold Blue Line, which will put 2,000 new cops on the streets. How do we make government run better? I’ve had people say to me, ‘Governor, your administration accomplished more in one year than a lot of people thought you could get done in four years.’ All that does is double down my excitement to see what we can do next year when we hit the accelerator.”
Youngkin has enjoyed solid job-approval numbers since taking office — 53 percent in May, 55 percent in August, and 52 percent in December — and note that 31 percent of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing. That same survey found this month that 52 percent of Virginia Republicans want him to run for president, but only 34 percent of all Virginians do.
I asked Youngkin about the persistent presidential buzz surrounding him; for much of the past year, he’s punted on the questions about a 2024 bid, insisting he was focused on his duties as governor and the midterms. While it’s still early, Youngkin’s comments are starting to sound more Sherman-esque in his refusal to acknowledge any interest in running.
“I have to say I’m really honored and humbled by it all,” Youngkin said. “Here we are, two years ago, I had just left my job at Carlyle, my dream job. And I was contemplating running for governor, and my name is tossed around in that context, and it was humbling. Forty years ago, I was taking out the trash and washing dishes down at the beach because I needed a job. My primary response will continue to be, I’m focused on Virginia. . . . I just have to make sure that we deliver for Virginians. I’ve got a mission on my hands, and we’re going to accomplish it, and I am laser-focused on it.”
I asked Youngkin how he measures his performance as governor and whether his policies are working.
“At the top of the list, there are a series of very clear data points,” Youngkin began. “One, labor participation. Two, outward migration versus inward migration.”
Virginia’s unemployment rate is 2.8 percent, half a percentage point below the rate from a year ago, and the labor-force-participation rate is 63.6 percent, an increase from 62.7 percent one year ago.
But the migration data aren’t quite as cheery. Since 2013, more Virginians have moved out of the state than residents of other states have moved in. It’s important to note that, “In Virginia, births exceed both deaths and the net out-migration — so the state is still gaining population, just more slowly than before.” But the state isn’t just losing the usual retirees to warmer climes; more 20-to-35-year-olds are moving to other states. Earlier this year, Youngkin sounded the alarm on the number of young people moving out, and the now-roughly 700,000 unfilled jobs in the state.
“I’m pleased with the economic-development activity that we have had, although we are not keeping up with the states around us,” Youngkin continued. “And so an absolute measure has also got to be relative. I spend a lot of time seeing how North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas are doing with job growth and with job announcements. We can compete head-to-head on things, and I want to win.”
In the past year, Virginia added 108,300 non-farm jobs, an increase of 2.7 percent. That puts it around the middle of the pack nationally: Mississippi ranks the lowest, at just one tenth of one percent increase in non-farm employment over the past year; Texas ranks highest with a 5.1 percent increase, and Florida ranks second with a 4.7 percent increase.
On education, the governor said that, “We’re going to watch our scores on SOLs” — Virginia’s Standard of Learning tests, which measure student progress in reading, writing, math, history, and science — “and the National Report Card very closely, particularly with our fourth-graders. These are just clear signposts. Are we making progress or not?”
This year, Virginia’s SOLs showed an improvement from the previous year, likely attributable to the return to in-person classes, but scores remain well below their pre-pandemic levels. In mathematics, 66 percent of students overall passed, compared with 82 percent before the pandemic, according to the state department of education. The state report found that, “Gaps between pre-pandemic math performance and achievement in 2021-2022 were much wider among Blacks, Hispanics, economically disadvantaged students, English learners and students with disabilities.”
“We have to bring a comprehensive set of movements, from tax cuts, to site investment, to talent development, to raising the bar in education, so that we are shooting for the stars for our kids, but also supporting those kids who need help the most,” Youngkin said. “We’ve done that for math, for the kids who have really stumbled in math proficiency the most during the pandemic. We’ve got to have the safest communities.”
“I have on my board in my office job numbers, labor-participation rate. And we’re moving the needle, but it’s not moving fast enough. I told our general assembly last week, the Virginia state government is moving at a pace that it has never moved.”
Youngkin’s proposed budget for the coming year would add $230 million to existing behavioral-health and substance-abuse programs; $30 million to recruit 2,000 new police officers; $17 million for literacy and $50 million for teacher performance bonuses; $175 million for recruitment of teachers, nurses, and other professions designated “quiet heroes”; and increase spending for environmental conservation and preservation, including $685 million for environmental “resiliency” and the Chesapeake Bay.
Youngkin’s agenda includes one of conservatives’ perennial favorites: tax cuts. He aims to lower the state’s top individual income-tax rate from 5.75 percent to 5.5 percent. Because the state’s highest income bracket kicks in on taxable income over $17,000, the cut would lower taxes on the vast majority of Virginia earners. Youngkin also wants to reduce the state’s corporate income-tax rate from 6 percent to 5 percent, with the possibility of cutting that tax further in coming years.
This would be on top of last year’s $4 billion in cuts to state income and sales taxes, which included one-time rebates of $250 for individual taxpayers and $500 for couples.
“We have a $3.6 billion surplus. That money belongs to Virginians, not the government,” Youngkin said. “We can cut taxes by a billion dollars and make these critical investments. They expect us to get this done. It’s common sense; it’s not partisan stuff. They want behavioral health, they want investment in law enforcement, they want to make our schools better, and yes, they want more of their money in their pocket.”
Finally, Virginia has off-year state-legislature elections — all 40 State Senate seats, all 100 House of Delegate seats, and various local offices will be on the ballot this coming November. Both chambers are closely divided; Republicans have a 52–48 majority in the House of Delegates and Democrats have a 21–19 majority in the State Senate.
“We’re going to work hard to hold our House and win our Senate,” Youngkin concluded.
ADDENDUM: Over on the homepage, our Jay Nordlinger talks a bit about the National Review Institute and the institute’s William F. Buckley Jr. Fellowship in Political Journalism and Thomas L. Rhodes Journalism Fellowship — the fellowships currently held by Luther Ray Abel and Dominic Pino, respectively. You’ve read Luther on everything from this year’s political races in his home state of Wisconsin to natural Christmas trees to JROTC to the future of American hunting to the Call of Duty video-game franchise. (And if you haven’t been reading him, you should be!) And you’ve read Dominic on all kinds of economic topics, from trade and the supply-chain issues to the hideous Jones Act to the government’s tracking of truckers to FTX to his comprehensive coverage of the labor dispute in the freight-rail industry and its ultimate resolution.
The National Review Institute does a lot — and I think one of the significant advantages it has over other conservative institutions that are asking you for donations around this time of year is that with NRI, it is very easy to see what your donations are funding.