On the menu today: It’s October 1 — happy fiscal new year to all who celebrate. Tonight brings the lone vice-presidential debate, probably the last nationally televised debate of the year; I consider the stakes for J. D. Vance and just what role a Vice President Tim Walz would play in a Kamala Harris administration. Also: eye-popping numbers about Josh Shapiro’s popularity in Pennsylvania; America’s ports on the East Coast come to a halt; and a welcome book review.
Get Ready for Pulse-Pounding, Edge-of-Your-Seat, VP Debate Action!
Tonight is likely to bring us the last nationally televised debate of the 2024 cycle, as Donald Trump does not seem inclined to participate in another presidential debate. Trump, who declined to participate in Republican primary debates, joined in two debates this year — one with Biden, which effectively ended the latter’s candidacy and presidency, and one with Kamala Harris. Unless something changes, this year will feature the fewest debates between the presidential nominees on the ballot — one — since 1980.
I know everyone’s in expectations-management mode — “Dems lower expectations for Walz ahead of VP debate,” reports Politico — but J. D. Vance should do well when he goes out there tonight, because if there’s any role he excels at, it’s that of attack dog. And as Vance demonstrated in his convention speech, he’s comfortable on stage and on camera.
As our Audrey Fahlberg previews, Vance has recent experience debating a similar Democrat — another Tim, no less:
The Yale-educated Marine veteran has experience debating this kind of Democrat. In his 2022 Senate race, Vance faced off against former representative Tim Ryan (D., Ohio), a smooth-talking, moderate-sounding Democrat with a very liberal voting record. In Walz, Vance has a buffet of ultra-progressive gubernatorial policies to poke fun at — from his botched handling of the Minneapolis riots in 2020 to his restrictive Covid policies, high tax policies, support for gender-transition services for minors in Minnesota, and decision to sign legislation granting illegal immigrants driver’s licenses. And when it comes to the 2024 campaign, Vance will push Walz to defend the Biden-Harris administration’s record on illegal immigration and the economy.
“No amount of ‘Minnesota Nice’ is going to make up for the fact that Walz embodies the same disastrous economic, open-border, and soft-on-crime policies Harris has inflicted on our country over the last four years,” House GOP whip Tom Emmer said on a Trump campaign press call with reporters Monday morning. A former House colleague of Walz’s, Emmer has spent the past month studying the Minnesota governor’s mannerisms and going through his old debate footage to role-play him in debate prep with Vance. The most difficult part of debate prep? “Learning how to tell lies with a straight face,” Emmer said.
If Vance doesn’t go out and have a terrific debate, his reputation among Republicans will suffer, and you’d have to wonder if he’ll remain the heir apparent to Trump within the MAGA movement. Vance was a bit of a surprise selection, much less safe than picking a Doug Burgum or a Marco Rubio, and Trump did not exactly give a roaring defense of Vance during his appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists: “The vice president in terms of the election, does not have any impact. I mean, virtually no impact. . . . Historically, the choice of a vice president makes no difference.”
Despite the deliberate leaks about Tim Walz suffering from nerves about tonight’s debate, I suspect the Minnesota governor will come out swinging with some of the peevish contempt that marked his convention speech: “I grew up in the small town of Butte, Nebraska, population 400. I had 24 kids in my high-school class and none of ’em went to Yale.” Governor, don’t try to pretend that you’ve got some populist resentment of Yale. Half the Democratic Party’s leadership went to Yale.
A big question that tonight’s debate is unlikely to clear up: Do you feel like you have any idea what role Walz would play in a Harris administration?
If the Senate is 50–50, he’ll be on call to break ties. Beyond that, what would VP Walz do?
Perhaps, with a bit of irony, Harris would saddle him with the “migration czar” mantle. But if you’re President Harris, what part of your agenda do you entrust to this guy? (Also, just what is your agenda again?) The Minnesota state government is poorly managed under Walz, beset by constant scandals of waste, fraud, and abuse, including the largest Covid-aid fraud scheme in the country. (Feel like you’ve heard much about that since Walz was picked?) Dan McLaughin reminds us that Walz is not actually that popular in his home state, with half of Minnesota independents viewing the governor unfavorably.
Would you entrust any foreign-policy priority to Walz? He’s got no experience beyond his long-standing ties to China. (Apparently DHS employees were wary about Walz’s frequent trips to China and ties to Chinese institutions.) Walz is sort of an anti-Nixon, and not in a good way. If “only Nixon could go to China” because of his credibility as a Cold Warrior, Walz will make any conciliatory or assuaging outreach to China appear suspect.
As time has passed, Walz’s role in the campaign has become clear — make progressives happy, seem folksy and Midwestern and more centrist than his actual record, and give Harris an excuse to not select Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, which would have risked alienating Democratic critics of Israel, and by Israel, I mean Jews.
Honest to God, Josh Shapiro polls better in Pennsylvania than Taylor Swift:
Approximately 59 percent of likely Pennsylvania voters “strongly approve” or “somewhat approve” of Shapiro’s leadership as the commonwealth’s governor in the months since he was a frontrunner to be Harris’ vice-presidential pick.
Shapiro’s high approval ratings outpace the favorability ratings of Harris (51 percent), Trump (45 percent), and Swift (46 percent), who endorsed Harris following last week’s presidential debate in Philadelphia. Job approval ratings are usually lower than favorability ratings, meaning the number of voters who like Shapiro personally could be higher than those who approve of the job he’s doing as governor.
As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics average has Trump ahead in Pennsylvania by two-tenths of a percentage point, while the 538 average has Harris ahead by eight-tenths of a percentage point. I would say the Trump campaign dodged a bullet when Harris didn’t pick Shapiro, but this is the wrong year for that metaphor.
If Harris doesn’t win Pennsylvania and loses the presidency because of it, picking Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro is going to be remembered as the political equivalent of picking Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan in the 1984 NBA draft.
I can assure you that no matter the outcome, the media will declare Walz the winner, unless he removes his clothes during the halfway commercial break and insists on doing the rest of the night au naturel. . . . If Walz dares to open his faux-populist yap about Yale, I hope Vance is prepared to drop a nuclear bomb on his head instantly. (“What did you do after graduating from high school, Tim? I went to Iraq.”)
America’s East Coast Ports Come to a Halt
There are 14 major ports on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States: Baltimore; Boston; Charleston, S.C.; Houston; Jacksonville, Fla.; Miami; Mobile, Ala.; New Orleans; New York/New Jersey; Norfolk, Va.; Philadelphia; Savannah, Ga.; Tampa, Fla.; and Wilmington, Del.
This morning, no one is working at those ports, because the International Longshoremen’s Association is on strike.
Our Dominic Pino saw this coming and warned a week ago:
Ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast will come to a halt on October 1 if the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) follows through on its plans to go on strike. Negotiations for a new six-year labor contract have been on pause since June, when the ILA walked away from the table. The ILA represents roughly 47,000 dockworkers, nearly the entire longshore workforce for ports on the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. . . .
What does the ILA want? A 77 percent pay raise, some reports have indicated, though neither side has confirmed details of negotiations. It wants higher than the 32 percent pay raise that the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) got last year, though it reportedly turned down an offer of 40 percent.
A strike on the East Coast would be the first since 1977.
This paragraph from CNN suggests that the ILA is being wildly unrealistic in their demands and intransigent in their stance:
The [United States Maritime Alliance] has complained the union is not negotiating in good faith, saying the two sides haven’t met in person since June. The USMX said Monday it had increased its offer to wage increases of more than 50% over the proposed six-year contract. [ILA President Harold] Daggett on Wednesday told CNN the union is seeking a $5-an-hour pay increase each year over six years, with top pay climbing from $39 an hour to $69. That would equate to a 77% pay hike over the life of the contract.
Maersk, an international shipping giant, warned, “Should a general work stoppage occur on the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts, even a one-week shutdown could take 4-6 weeks to recover from, with significant backlogs and delays compounding with each passing day.” The National Association of Manufacturers estimates that the strike will reduce the U.S. gross domestic product by up to $5 billion per day.
As you may have suspected, the immediate aftermath of a devastating hurricane in the Southeast is a terrible time to halt activity at ports in Charleston, Jacksonville, Savannah, Mobile, and Norfolk.
Did I mention that the current person running the Department of Labor, Julie Su, has been the acting secretary of labor since March 2023, because Senate Democrats can’t find enough votes to confirm her?
Under the Taft-Hartley Act, President Biden has the authority to force union workers to get back to work while negotiations continue. Because this is the self-proclaimed “most pro-union president in history,” Biden has ruled out that option:
Q: Mr. President, will you intervene in the dockworkers strike if they go on strike on Tuesday?
THE PRESIDENT: No.
Q: Why not?
THE PRESIDENT: Because there’s collective bargaining, and I don’t believe in Taft-Hartley.
This morning, the White House issued a statement that the president and vice president are “closely monitoring” the situation:
President Biden and Vice President Harris are closely monitoring the strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. The President has directed his team to convey his message directly to both sides that they need to be at the table and negotiating in good faith—fairly and quickly. On Monday, at the President’s direction, Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard convened USMX board members and urged them to resolve this in a way that accounts for the success of these companies in recent years and the invaluable contributions of ILA workers. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su, and National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard have been in direct contact with both USMX and the ILA on the President’s behalf to keep the negotiations moving forward.
As the supply-chain problems pile up, recognize that Joe Biden could have prevented or stopped all this, and he chose not to do so.
ADDENDUM: Thanks to the good folks at Abyss & Apex magazine for their review of Dueling Six Demons — “the Dangerous Clique novels have a paranormal edge to them, and if you like spy thrillers, you’ll love these books.”