The darkest of clouds has hung over the outlook for Republicans in the 2008 cycle, both at the presidential and congressional level. Maybe those clouds are starting to lift a little bit, with a Democratic-controlled Congress’ approval rating remaining somewhere below the dumpster and a better-than-expected result in a House special election.
Matt Margolis, who tracked this race on the ground, writes:
Niki Tsongas was wrong when she said this election was a referendum on George W. Bush and the war in Iraq. In the bluest of blue states, a Niki Tsongas, if she was right, would have easily won this election. Instead, she brought in Democratic heavyweights, including former President Bill Clinton, to help bring in money to her campaign, enabling her run ads that distorted Ogonowski’s positions. The odds were against Ogonowski from the beginning. Yet, Tsongas only managed to win by 5 points.
…A five point victory for Tsongas can mean only one thing: that Jim Ogonowski’s message of being tough on illegal immigration, lowering taxes, and controlling spending, won over much of his district. Ogonowski has proven that when it comes to the issues people care about, Republicans can win the votes of independent voters.
I was intrigued by this comment on Red State: “This District is solid Dem. The political atmosphere is terrible for Republicans, the Iraq war is unpopular, Bush is despised, and yet we made strong gains in a safe Dem seat in the bluest of blue states. The lessons I draw from this race are: 1) Run hard to the right on immigration in 2008. 2) Run against Pelosi as much as Hillary. 3) Our Presidential nominee needs to run as a Washington Outsider.”
UPDATE: Patrick Ruffini: “The change message worked.”