Obi-Wan is working on his update… He, like many of us, is always looking for one more piece of data to interpret…
Two interesting bits of anecdotal data, though. First, from Rob, a Campaign Spot reader in Texas:
While Texas will go solidly McCain as it did for Bush, I thought this was interesting. I live in Lubbock, TX a city of about 200,000 that went about 75-25% for Bush in 2004. In 2004 about 58,500 early voted in the county (total county pop is somewhat higher than city’s 200,000), this year early voting was about 69,500. That’s almost a 19% increase, and you can bet it’s largely McCain support. No glum McCain supporters (as the AP reports) or apathy, or giving up, here.
Second, the Campaign Spot Hilton Head Bureau Chief (a.k.a., “Dad”) is resigning in the near future to become the new president of the Hilton Head Republican Club. He mentioned an interesting anecdote to me recently. South Carolina in general, and the Low Country/Beaufort County portion of the state, are some of the most deep red sections of the country as you’re going to find; in a year when traditionally Republican states Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia has wavered, no one has contemplated any Obama movement in the Palmetto State.
Anyway, in this certain-for-McCain corner of this certain-for-McCain state, the wait on the lines for early voting have been… two hours. There’s not a ton of locations, and not a ton of machines, which contributes to the wait, but still, that’s an awful lot of enthusastic voters in a region considered completely uncompetitive. And even with the early rush, poll workers are being told to “expect the worst” on Election Day. There aren’t any dramatic Senate races, House races, or local initiatives to drive all this; it is, as the Beaufort County GOP chairman puts it, “I have never seen our base as energized as they are about this election. The reason is we have never had two candidates whose philosophies as different as this year.”
This won’t make a difference in the electoral college; everyone has put Texas and South Carolina into the McCain pile since Day One. But it may make a difference in the popular vote nationwide. And if the GOP base is fired up and showing up in places like Texas and South Carolina, is there some reason it wouldn’t show up in Indiana, North Carolina or Virginia? I suppose it’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.