As readers have sensed, I’m just not an optimist about Chris Christie’s chances in New Jersey. Maybe it’s the hinky Democratic Party effort on absentee ballots; maybe it’s the miserable recent history of Republicans in the state; maybe it’s that article I wrote for a now-defunct dot-com that depicted the Garden State as a swing state in 2000.
But one of my readers, who puts my number-crunching to shame, has been arguing throughout the campaign that Corzine’s constistently abysmal favorability and job approval ratings make the most likely outcome a Christie win of 4 to 5 percentage points. He recently sent me these thoughts:
[Rasmussen’s latest] would support a 4 point race if the undecided voters break 2-1 for Christie which is very likely. Bottom line is that all of Rasmussen’s polls have never seen Corzine ahead, and in fact, Corzine’s best poll about 10 days ago had him down one (a surge of Daggett votes brought the poll there). Daggett is now slipping in Rasmussen polls (and others). Like the FDU poll, this looks to me like a 5 point Christie win. A good ground game can save you a point, but not 5 points.
To use a baseball analogy, the Yankees lost Game 5 to Anaheim, failing to clinch the series, morale was down with the fans (especially being ahead 6-4 in the 7th). At the end of the game the players had the correct attitude . . . they were up 3-2 and get to play the next two at home a pretty good position to be.
Look, New Jersey is a blue state that is getting only more blue as people with red state tendencies have left state. Yet two polls released today, have Christie winning by 3 and 2. And almost every poll shows Corzine’s support has remained flat! In addition, Corzine’s only real weapon, Daggett, is starting to see his numbers fall. Christie is facing an incumbent who has outspent him by a 3:1 margin. While these ads have driven Christie’s negatives up, Corzine has not moved. There was zero enthusiasm for Corzine when this started and 20 million bucks later, there is still zero enthusiasm.
A 4-5 point win is what this race is looking like . . . everything today supports that if the polling targets oversample Democrats, which is possible. While many are predicting a long night, I don’t see it.
I figured I should give some folks out there some reasons for optimism . . .