I’m one of the skeptics of the notion that Barack Obama can win Georgia, even with former Congressman Bob Barr running as the Libertarian Party nominee.
I know the Southern Political Report says Obama could win, and that he’ll keep it in play, but the Democrat has yet to lead a poll in the state.
We may know how seriously to take Obama’s chances after August 5, when the Democratic Senate primary runoff is held. The leading candidate in the Democrat primary, Vernon Jones, is a thoroughly controversial figure. Cynthia Tucker, editorial page editor of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, offers his history:
You’d see reruns of a woman’s accusation that Jones raped her in December 2004, although he was never charged with a crime. At best, the episode, which involved two women, was a sordid ménage à trois, something unlikely to win the approval of Bible Belt Georgians — whether Republicans or conservative Democrats.
Earlier that year, DeKalb County Commissioner Elaine Boyer filed a police report alleging that Jones shoved her in the hallway outside the commission chambers after a heated dispute over a budget vote. That came shortly after an unnerved constituent had reported to police that a confrontation with Jones — at her home — left her feeling threatened. If you believe you detect a pattern suggesting Jones has a problem dealing with women, Chambliss will no doubt hammer the point home.
That tally of public foibles, by the way, doesn’t even touch on Jones’ divisive racial politics, which run counter to everything Obama stands for. Jones plays the race card at every sign of opposition, insisting that criticism of him derives from an unfair double standard that denigrates powerful black men.
Obama believes he has a shot at putting Georgia in the win column. But even with his money, his “change” mantra and his charisma on the campaign trail, it’s a long shot. With Jones on the ticket to drag him down, he’d have no shot at all.
In a way, a Jones victory would be a mild advantage for Obama. A North Carolina adviser to his campaign is talking up putting North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama in play. I’m supremely skeptical of all four, but if Obama’s going to target some southern states, it’s probably wiser to focus on a few that are most competitive instead of pouring money and resources into some of the most Republican states in the country.