If you assigned the likelihood that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee a percentage, it would probably be in the high nineties. Which is one of the reasons it seems silly to see people urging Hillary Clinton to drop out at this point; another two weeks of her campaigning won’t be the factor that keeps Obama out of the White House.
But as Howard Wolfson soldiered on today on the morning shows, his argument did have a simple logic to it. He contends the Democrats absolutely must have Michigan and Florida represented at their convention. (Otherwise, I figure they can re-use all of those 48-star flags from before 1959.) To do otherwise is to essentially write off those two important states in the general election. Because those states must be represented in one form or another, the delegate total required to clinch the nomination ought to represent the 50 state total, not the 48 state total. Thus, the nominee will need 2209 delegates, not 2025 delegates.
The thing is, the superdelegates have been shifting to Obama in a steady drip-drip-drip. He should roll in Oregon today (turnout could hit 1 million!) and he should have friendly states in Montana and South Dakota. He’s getting fantastic coverage while Hillary can’t even buy attention. So when she declares that she’s ahead in the popular vote, why do Obama’s fans tear their hair out? If the race is as settled as they say it is (and a preponderance of all available data suggests it is), why get irate over her bragging about a popular vote lead that includes a state Obama’s name wasn’t on the ballot (Michigan) a state he didn’t campaign (Florida) and not including several caucus states (Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington)?
Is she shameless? Sure. As Brendan Loy notes, “instead of counting Michigan as a 328,309 to 238,168 victory for Senator Clinton — her margin over “Uncommitted” — she is awarding herself a 328,309 to zero victory.” (Although I would note that presumably some of those 238,168 uncommitted folks were Edwards supporters, so it doesn’t seem fair to assign them all to Obama.)
Hillary’s gameplan from here on out has to be to narrow the margin of the popular vote, under any count, as much as possible when all the primaries are completed. Then, because (as of this writing) there is no mechanism to force superdelegates to cast votes before the convention, announce that she’s “suspending” the “active” campaign until the convention. Then go to work on arm-twisting the superdelegates and hope some other horrific scandal or gaffe engulfs the Obama campaign. If nothing happens, she endorses at the convention. But she and her allies can continue to warn that some October surprise looms (hint, hint) and subtly undermine her rival all the way through August.