Quin Hillyer over at the Spectator says there’s been much ado about nothing regarding developments in the Fred Thompson camp, and at the end of the day, “He’s gonna be very, very much in the mix, and he is well positioned to win the whole thing.”
When Thompson gets in, most of us expect we will see a savvy, charismatic candidate. But he’s taken some lumps in recent weeks, and with each passing week, the expectations for that official announcement speech – when all Republican eyes will be on him – just keep getting higher.
Perhaps most troubling, Thompson has run into his current (modest) troubles without anyone else in the race really taking a swing at him. For example – one campaign has spent much of the year trying to persuade me that another candidate – let’s call him, for the sake of this example, ”Schmitt Schmomney” – is a… well, let’s call it a “schmipp-schmopper” on many issues, offering a daily barrage of e-mails asserting the charge, sometimes with compelling evidence, sometimes not so much. But this campaign hasn’t said a peep about… “Schmed Schmompson,” even though at first glance, they would have equal motive to point out the flaws of another rival.
I talked today with a guy working for one of Fred’s rivals, and he pointed out that the whole lobbying-for-an-abortion group came from the Los Angeles Times and that abortion group, not from another campaign. Whatever the opposition researchers of other campaigns have found, they’re keeping their powder dry, for now.
Having said that, this guy also noted a potential future line of attack on Thompson – a backer of McCain-Feingold, remember – about how he’s stretching the rules of “testing the waters.” (I’d expect to see this criticism deployed really soon.)
Thompson’s campaign is expected to file IRS form 8872 on July 31, which would reveal his expenditures and contributions in the month of June. Form 8872 keeps Thompson’s campaign’s tax exempt status without conceding he has become an actual candidate (which would require the usual detailed forms with the FEC). Presuming Thompson doesn’t get in until September, he doesn’t have to file the usual FEC forms until October 15, would includes figures like cash on hand and campaign debt. As this rival guy noted, the first vote is set for January 14, and absentee and military ballots go out about a month before that.
Could Thompson really end up making only one filing with the FEC before the first votes are cast? Would primary voters be bothered by that? Or would they conclude that it’s just “flies buzzing”?