As lot of 2014’s biggest gubernatorial races are exceptionally close, featuring front-runners with current margins that are less than 2 points. If we apply the same “the statewide polling averages are usually right” philosophy to the governor’s races, we find . . .
Wisconsin: This is the single most consequential race for 2016 — both for Scott Walker’s presidential ambitions and for the lesson to other governors of the consequences of public-sector union-reform efforts. Yes, liberal groups lost the recall battle, but this is their second bite at the apple. Walker has led three of the last four polls, including the Marquette University poll, which had him ahead by 7 points. Walker should win, but the ceiling for a Republican in Wisconsin is probably about 51 or 52 percent.
Alabama: Republican Robert Bentley will win by a wide margin.
Arizona: Expect Republican Doug Ducey to win fairly handily, outside the margin of error.
Arkansas: Republicans pick up a previously Democrat-held governor’s mansion; since spring, Asa Hutchison has steadily led Democrat Mike Ross.
Alaska: Independent Bill Walker has led most of the polling this fall over Republican incumbent Sean Parnell. Insert all standard caveats about Alaska polling, but an incumbent governor polling in the low 40s is usually in trouble.
Colorado: If Republicans really have a 110,000-or-so-vote margin in the early vote, that should be a good sign for Bob Beauprez. Hickenlooper is ahead by half a point in the RealClearPolitics average, but this is one area I might make an exception to my “follow the polling average” rule for this year and pick Beauprez.
Connecticut: Incumbent Democrat Dannel Malloy — perhaps the nation’s worst governor — who loathes National Review, has been neck-and-neck with Republican Tom Foley, but Malloy has narrowly led the last three polls. My heart wants Foley to win, but my head sees Malloy eking it out.
Florida: Republican incumbent Rick Scott has fought hard and long, and three of the past five polls show a tie. I’d much rather see Scott win, but Crist is my predicted winner, as he has a modest, modest lead in the RCP average. This is one where the other result wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.
Georgia: Republican Nathan Deal has a good but not great chance of avoiding a runoff and hitting 50 percent. If he does not meet that threshold, he will be the heavy favorite in the runoff.
Hawaii: Weird polling in the Aloha State has Democrat David Ige ahead by 1 point, 12 points, 32 points, or 6 points. Look for Republican Duka Aiona to keep it close, but for the Democrat to emerge victorious.
Illinois: If Democrat incumbent Pat Quinn wins, it will be a stunning comeback and a testament to the Democratic machine in Illinois. Bruce Rauner had a fantastic opportunity, and may yet pull off the victory. But with a small lead of eight-tenths of a percentage point in the RCP average, Quinn is the pick.
Kansas: A near-terrific comeback by Republican incumbent Sam Brownback, who trailed considerably for much of August and September. Democrat Paul Davis leads by 2.3 points in the RCP average, and the media will treat his victory as the single most consequential and symbolic race of the cycle.
Maine: Incumbent Republican Paul LePage is hanging on by 1.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average, boosted by a Portland Press Herald poll that put him up 10. LePage is the favorite in the three-way race.
Massachusetts: The Massachusetts Republican Pparty just unveiled its sure-fire way to win every statewide race, forever: Have its members write in “Martha Coakley” in every Democratic primary for the rest of time. Charlie Baker is the predicted winner.
Michigan: The polls in this state bounced around a bit, but incumbent Republican Rick Snyder enjoys a small lead in five of the past six polls. Snyder is the predicted winner.
Maryland: Perhaps the most surprisingly tight race, and there are some Republicans murmuring that an upset is possible, but the polls point to a closer-than-usual win for Democrat Anthony Brown.
Minnesota: Incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton led Republican Jeff Johnson throughout the campaign; Johnson should make it closer but still a Dayton win.
Oregon: Late scandals added some suspense, but at this point there’s no indication that Republican Dennis Richardson will beat Democrat John Kitzhaber.
Rhode Island: Republican Allen Fung is running quite well for a Republican in a heavily Democratic state, but Democrat Gina Raimondo should win, perhaps narrowly.
South Carolina: Incumbent Republican Nikki Haley wins easily.
Texas: The real fun question in this race is whether Wendy Davis finishes with more than 40 percent. She doesn’t deserve to finish that high.