Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely voters in Illinois’s 11th congressional district on March 21–22, 2010.
Adam Kinzinger currently leads on the ballot test 44%-38% over Congresswoman Halvorson, with 16% of voters undecided. Among high interest voters (8-10s), Kinzinger’s lead improves to 49%-35%, with 13% undecided.
On the generic Congressional ballot test, the generic Republican candidate enjoys a ten point advantage in the district (43%-33%, with 21% undecided).
Voters in the district are unhappy with the job President Obama is doing, as 45% approve of the job he is doing, and 52% disapprove. Nearly four in ten voters (38%) strongly disapprove of the job the President is doing.
Congresswoman Halvorson’s image stands at 33% favorable/31% unfavorable. Her challenger, Adam Kinzinger is still relatively unknown, with a name ID of 50% and an image of 19% favorable/5% unfavorable.
Congresswoman Halvorson’s re-elect stands at 31% total re-elect to 44% total new person, with 24% of voters saying they do not know if Halvorson deserves to be re-elected. Such a low reelect score shows that Halvorson is in a precarious position for a first term Member of Congress.
Boy, no wonder Halvorson was so intent on making sure the unemployed have health insurance.
Two points: First, this district may not be representative of a lot of other districts, as Adam Kinzinger is probably one of the most appealing House GOP candidates this cycle; second, while Obama carried this district by 8 percentage points in 2008, Bush carried it by the same margin four years earlier. Halvorson was undoubtedly helped by having Obama at the top of the ticket; the 2008 GOP primary winner, Tim Baldermann, suddenly withdrew, leaving the GOP with a backup, first-time candidate.