The Campaign Spot

Apparently This Just Isn’t the Year to Try to Knock Off a GOP Incumbent

An intriguing insight from Southern Political Report:

In nine Democratic [House] districts, with or without an incumbent, there are at least three or more Republicans seeking the office, with at least six each in two districts represented by freshman Democrats – Virginia’s Second (Virginia Beach) and Fifth (Charlottesville, etc.). Moreover, in South Carolina’s Fourth District (Greenville, etc.), where US Rep. Bob Inglis (R) is perceived by many conservatives as too moderate, there are five GOPers running against him in the primary; Greenville is a center of TEA Party activity. Indeed, while hard numbers are not available, many of the Republican candidates across the South have been motivated by the conservative TEA Party movement. Many of these inspired contenders are political neophytes, but according to the Fourth Quarter financial reports, most have been able to raise – if not a pot full – at least a fistful of dollars.

On the Democratic side, there is only one district primary with a large multi-candidate field, Florida 17 (Miami), a solidly Democratic district that US Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) is vacating to run for the Senate. Seven Democrats are vying to succeed him. There are no Republican districts with a large number of Democratic contenders.

Worth noting that sometimes a crowded primary can work well, helping the party’s nominee get in fighting shape for the general election, and sometimes it doesn’t work out so well, draining valuable resources. Also note that when you have a crowded primary, sometimes it’s easier for some little-known candidate to squeak through and win with only 25 to 35 percent of the vote.

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