Daniel Levy, who has views on the Israeli-Palestinian question that are very different from mine, offers thoughts on how the unfolding events in Egypt will shape the region:
As part of any transition the US should certainly strive hard to insure that the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty is strictly adhered to, and it is a goal that most are confident can be achieved. But it should not demand that Egypt continue to be the loyal servant of a thoroughly discredited peace process. The US should be careful not to view transition in Egypt too much through the prism of Israeli demands.
Beyond the basic and legitimate position of respecting existing treaties and avoiding use or threats of force, degrees of Israelophilia should not be the litmus test for judging the acceptability or otherwise of governments in the Arab world. It is true that a political system more representative of Arab public will is likely to be less indulgent of Israel’s harsh policy towards the Palestinians (and less belligerent towards Iran also). As Stephen Kinzer wrote in this piece, “Accepting that Arabs have the right to elect their own leaders means accepting the rise of governments that do not share America’s pro-Israel militancy.”
Turkey might be looked to as a model – and it is encouraging that in his round of weekend calls,President Obama chose to speak to Turkish PM Erdogan. Turkey has maintained relations with Israel (albeit chilled ones) and has certainly maintained its relationship with the US and membership in NATO, all while asserting a more independent and publicly popular regional policy, notably in opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza.
The real issue, as Levy understands, is that Israel rightly doesn’t want Egypt to become a channel through which Iranian weapons and personnel can make their way into Gaza. That would be an unmitigated disaster. I believe that something like the Turkish model is possible in Egypt, and I’ve suggested that Egypt might evolve into something like post-Suharto Indonesia rather than a theocratic military dictatorship like Iran after the fall of the shah.
But I can absolutely understand why Israelis are nervous. Speaking only for myself, I care less about “degrees of Israelophilia” and much more about what will happen if Israel finds its back against the wall militarily. My guess is that Israel will attract international opprobrium if it is forced to take preventive military action in Sinai to defend itself against the threat of weapons smuggling, despite the fact that Israel remains, despite its formidable military, very vulnerable.