Back in 2002, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published The Emerging Democratic Majority, a book based on an article for The New Republic that essentially argued that the McGovern coalition — of non-whites and college-educated liberals — that had lost the 1972 election in such spectacular fashion was now capable of winning durable majorities. Many dismissed the thesis after the 2004 election, re-embraced it in 2006 and 2008, and dismissed it once again in 2010. Regardless of what happens in any discrete election cycle, much of what Judis and Teixeira argued is sound, though conservatives will see the trends they identify differently.
The number of credentialed professionals and college-educated public workers has markedly increased over time, as has the size of the non-profit sector. The over 4 million unionized public school teachers represent the “tip of the spear” of an energized constituency for the constant expansion of funding for K-12, a large proportion of which flows to compensation for teachers under rigid schedules that conform to the interests of the median rather than the most effective employee. Moreover, the so-called “lower-upper-middle-class” suffers from status anxiety that inclines them to be extremely hostile to higher-earners, with whom they are locked in competition for various positional goods and for social prestige.
After the mid-1990s wave of anti-immigration sentiment, Republicans have fared poorly with the Latino and Asian American electorates, both of which are growing robustly in size. The Asian American electorate is growing from a small base, but this is a relatively affluent constituency that might prove increasingly influential in coming decades, with some components of it potentially resembling the diverse Jewish American constituency. We’re familiar with the arguments for why weak support for Republicans among Latinos is problematic: the numbers tell you everything you need to know. But the failure of Republicans to connect with Asian Americans is arguably an equally interesting problem, as at least some parts of this population — the socially conservative, tax-sensitive parts — should be winnable. There is a native-born Asian American population that has gravitated in the credentialed professional direction and resembles the aforementioned college-educated whites in its embrace of ideological liberalism. There is also an entrepreneurial-managerial component of this population that could potentially connect with conservatism, under the right circumstances and leadership.
This all comes to mind in light of a recent New York Times article on what Barack Obama’s presidential campaign sees as his path to victory next year. Basically, the Obama camp senses that the deterioration of its already weak support among less-affluent whites will create opportunities for Republicans in the Great Lakes region and the Upper Midwest. And so the president will bank on more-affluent white independents in states like Colorado and Virginia.
The latest nationwide New York Times/CBS News poll this month showed that 51 percent of independents with household incomes below $50,000 disapproved of Mr. Obama’s performance, as did 57 percent of those with incomes of $50,000 to $100,000. But independents with household incomes above $100,000 approved of his job performance by 50 percent to 43 percent.
One wonders how these numbers would change if we compared $100K+ households that include a public employee and those that do not. I suspect that the numbers would be telling.
In Colorado, the template for a repeat victory is last year’s campaign of Senator Michael Bennet. A Democratic novice, Mr. Bennet defeated a Tea Party Republican in a year when Republicans were triumphant nationwide. He built a coalition of Latino voters, Democrats like himself who are college-educated transplants to Colorado, and independents in Denver and Boulder. [Emphasis added]
These college-educated transplants left other U.S. regions behind, several of which might thus have become more amenable to Republicans.
With independents, Mr. Bennet said, “The question that resonated in 2010 was, Do you want somebody who will go to Washington and try to work to solve problems, or do you want somebody who will simply be a partisan?” They will seek a problem-solver again next year, he added, “and I think the president has a strong case to make.”
One wonders which candidate seems more like a problem-solver: Mitt Romney or Chris Christie on the one hand or Barack Obama on the other. This is part of why I assume that we’re going to see an incredibly rancorous campaign, defined by misleading attacks on the president’s opponent that are magnified and reinforced by friendly media organizations.
A challenge for Mr. Obama in Colorado and elsewhere is mobilizing Hispanic voters, many of whom complain that he has not tried hard enough to overcome Republican opposition to immigration legislation. And appealing to independents will require some deft politics, since Mr. Obama’s recent switch to a more confrontational approach with Congressional Republicans could cost independent support even as he energizes Democratic voters. [Emphasis added]
Deft politics indeed. The president’s “more confrontational approach” has actually led large numbers of congressional Democrats, who are eager to secure reelection, to oppose many aspects of his recent jobs and deficit proposals.
Virginia and North Carolina, with their respected universities, technology centers and diverse suburbs, are similar enough in their changing demographics that Mr. Devine suggests they can be viewed as a single state for purposes of presidential politics. Their combined 28 electoral votes are nearly equal to the 29 votes of Florida, which was traditionally joined with Ohio as must-haves for Democrats.
The change is evident outside Washington, where Virginia’s northern suburbs now dominate in state elections, and south around Richmond.
“It’s the difference between the Old Dominion and the New Dominion,” said Mike Henry, campaign manager for Tim Kaine, the former governor and former Democratic Partychairman who is running for the Senate. Pointing to “an influx of Latinos, African-American families, Asians,” Mr. Henry said, “the demographic characteristics of the state are totally different than what they were 10 years ago.”
Winning Virginia would indeed prove a boon to Barack Obama. It is worth observing, however, that the state’s Republican governor is at 61 percent, according to a Quinnipiac poll, and he is quite popular in the dense suburbs of northern Virginia, where he has successfully reached out to Latino and Asian American voters. Quinnipiac also found that President Obama’s approval in Virginia is at 40 percent.
Next year will be quite stimulating for those of us who follow politics and policy.