The Agenda

John Carney Might Be the Best Blogger in America

Go to The Business Insider and see for yourself. Here Carney explains why the latest jobs report is actually very good news:

During the bubble, far too much human capital was malinvested in the housing market. People developed relationships, skill sets, and years of experience performing in the unproductive housing sector jobs. As these jobs are lost, human capital is freed from the housing trap creating more potential for growth as labor resources are re-allocated.

And they are being re-allocated. Instead of merely being allowed to sit idle, the loss of 75,000 jobs in construction was largely offset by a surge in private sector, non-construction jobs of 63,000. The correction from bubble malinvestment of human capital is well underway.

The increase in manufacturing hours worked also implies that the liquidation of malinvestments and reallocation to activities now viewed as productive has begun.

Unfortunately, politics threatens to counteract the painful but necessary liquidation of malinvestment across the economy. 

Government support for various areas of the economy—from homes, to finance, to automobiles, to stimulus funded private projects—may be resulting in a new round of malinvestment. Financial capital and human labor may be being drawn into new bubbles, not yet visible. Unfortunately, the signals for a recovering economy may just as well be the signals for a bubbling economy.

Carney urges readers to look beyond aggregate numbers and to look at subtler but more telling indicators of a sustainable recovery, ranging from the number of retail jobs to rising rents than reflect an increase in household formation. (“But apartment rents are driven by household formation—the sign that workers believe their income and employment have become steady enough to move out of their parents homes or decouple from roommates.”)

In other news, Carney is predicting a collapse of the FHA. Watch out. 

Reihan Salam is president of the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of National Review.
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