The Heat survived a furious comeback by the Oklahoma City Thunder last night to even the NBA Finals at one game apiece. Kevin Durant was typically brilliant, LeBron James put up his usual numbers, and Dwyane Wade seemed to snap out of a funk.
In what may have been the most pivotal play, Oklahoma City, down two points with twelve seconds left, inbounded the ball to Durant. LeBron James, Durant’s defender, was out of position. As Durant went up for a shot, James made contact on Durant’s arm and body. Durant missed, LeBron rebounded, and the game was all but over. Watch for yourself:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Uul7J8nKYRE
Durant, Westbrook, the OKC fans, and Twitter all erupted at the refs’ inability to call the foul on LeBron. In real time it doesn’t look too bad, but the view that the baseline ref had should have been unmistakable: Durant got hacked. Now, unsurprisingly, some in the sports media have said that this is an example of the NBA treating its marquee player with special treatment.
It’s not. This is actually a common occurrence in sports, and it’s not limited to star players. When the game’s on the line, no matter who has the ball, refs tend to swallow the whistle. As University of Chicago economist Tobias Moskowitz, author of Scorecasting — writes at Freakonomics.com, referees are more worried about making an incorrect call than an incorrect no-call:
In basketball, hockey, soccer, and the NFL, we also find that the rate of officials’ calls, especially judgment calls, goes way down near the end of tight games and the bigger the stage. How do we know this is referee bias and not just the flow of the game? Because non-subjective calls that require little judgment — such as delay of game and shot clock violations, where everyone in the stadium can see a giant clock indicate that time has expired or, in the case of the NBA, the entire goal lighting up red — do not decline as the game gets tight or nears its end. Officials seem to systematically swallow the whistle on judgment calls and let the players determine the outcome. As fans, we may want that, too, but keep in mind it means the rules of the game aren’t being applied uniformly.
This last part is crucial — the rules of the game aren’t being applied uniformly — but it’s not because of superstar treatment. The Miami Heat escaped with a victory last night, but it’s more because referees are systematically biased to ignore ticky-tack fouls in a game’s closing seconds than because they favor LeBron James over Kevin Durant.