It is, once again, more likely than ever that Cruz will be the Republican nominee. There is little chance it will be Trump, and about no chance it will be anyone else.
Trump didn’t do that badly in Wisconsin, and overall he’s fading only slightly. His campaign is in disarray and all that, but that only means he doesn’t have what it takes to expand beyond his hugely devoted base.
Cruz, however, seems to have consolidated the Rubio vote. And the biggest news from Wisconsin might be Kasich tanking.
Cruz is not quite nominated. He still has to not be swamped in New York and Pennsylvania and win rather decisively in California. Otherwise there will be “democratic legitimacy” issues. Note that he’s now the favorite in California, according to the 538 experts, and he will continue to extend his lead as Kasich fades away. Cruz also is now a pretty strong second in Pennsylvania, where Kasich is also losing support.
The “New York values” thing is haunting Cruz in New York, where he might finish third. It will be, I think, a respectable enough third.
Neither Cruz nor Trump will go to the convention with a majority of delegates, and Trump will almost surely have a plurality. But it is also true, as Nate Silver and others have noticed, that many more delegates will be for Cruz than are free to vote for him on the first ballot. Overall, the delegates will end up being much more pro-Cruz than either the voters or the establishment. An unexpectedly small number of the delegates will actually be whole-hog Trumpians. Cruz’s hard work in dominating delegate selection will pay off.
So more experts today than before are agreeing with the obvious point that for Trump it’s first ballot or bust. And Wisconsin was his last chance at dodging the bust.
Damon Linker, meanwhile, is wrong to predict that the only alternative to Trump is chaos. It’s increasingly likely that the convention that chooses Cruz on the second ballot won’t be all that chaotic. Cruz will be in control. Every other candidate should have imitated Cruz on his ground game and mastery of details. In that sense, Cruz will be getting what he deserves.
I’m reporting this as a value-free social scientist. But people without values can still laugh at those Cruzophobes who still imagine the “never Trump” convention will nominate someone other than Cruz. I’m not laughing at Cruzophobia as such; I feel its pain, and I’ve signed up for therapy.
On the Democratic side: Bernie keeps winning and with another impressive margin. It remains the case that he will be nominated if he wins in both New York and California. He won’t if he doesn’t.
Hillary says no more being nice. Bernie has to die, and the main weapon will be a huge number of very negative commercials. We’ll see if that approach will work better for her.