A new GOP primary poll out of the Granite State has Nikki Haley 16 points behind frontrunner Donald Trump, but 29 points ahead of Florida governor Ron DeSantis, offering supporting evidence to the former South Carolina governor’s claims that the primary has narrowed into a two-person race.
Fifty percent of respondents in a new Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe poll said they support Trump, while 34 percent said they support Haley and just 5 percent backed DeSantis.
Three percent chose another candidate, while 6 percent were undecided and 2 percent refused to answer.
Fifty-four percent of Haley voters said their vote was in favor of Haley, rather than against Trump. Another 37 percent said their support of Haley represented a vote against Trump.
The poll found voters seem to have already made their minds up, with 87 percent of respondents saying they are “not at all likely” or “not very likely” to change their minds.
The survey of 500 likely Republican voters, which was conducted January 15 and 16, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
The polling comes as the Iowa caucuses on Monday represented a slam-dunk win for Trump, who ran away with 51 percent of the vote. Media outlets called the race for Trump just 30 minutes after caucusing began, as caucus goers in some precincts were still voting.
Given that DeSantis and his allied PACs invested heavily in Iowa to the exclusion of New Hampshire, Haley is claiming victory after finishing just two points behind the Florida governor in the Hawkeye State. Haley barely mentioned DeSantis in her speech after the caucus results came in, instead attacking Trump as a dead weight that will prevent the party from moving into the future.
Doubling down on the narrative that this is now a two-candidate race, Haley declined to participate in an upcoming New Hampshire primary debate against DeSantis, saying the next time she takes a debate stage, she’ll be on it with Trump or President Biden. The debates, which had been scheduled for Thursday and Sunday, were canceled as a result.
New Hampshire’s open primary is seen as Haley’s last chance to stop Trump’s rapid march to the nomination as the state’s independent voters are seen as likely to be more open to Haley’s candidacy than Iowa’s more conservative base.
In the new poll, Haley beat Trump 44 percent to 38 percent among independents, while Trump had a major advantage among Republicans: 61 percent to Haley’s 24 percent. Among moderates or liberals, Haley leads 56 percent to 27 percent and among conservatives, Trump has the edge, beating Haley 67 percent to 18 percent.
A RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire polling finds Trump leading with 44.5 percent of the vote, with Haley following at 31.3 percent. The average still includes Chris Christie drawing 11 percent support before his exit from the race last week. Christie supporters are expected to get in line behind Haley, but as we reported last week, some of Christie’s most ardent supporters aren’t sold on the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N.
Even if she does manage to squeak out a victory in the Granite State, where she’s been gaining on Trump in other recent polls, Haley’s path to the nomination is exceedingly narrow.
Post- New Hampshire, Haley would then head to her native South Carolina, where she trails Trump 30 points in the polls.