A new South Carolina poll finds former president Donald Trump leading Nikki Haley in the state’s GOP presidential primary by 26 points.
The latest Washington Post-Monmouth University poll finds Trump leading Haley 58 percent to 32 percent among potential Republican primary voters. Both Trump and Haley have increased their support since a poll taken in September, when they notched 46 percent and 18 percent support, respectively. Several candidates have dropped out of the race since the September poll was conducted, including South Carolina U.S. Senator Tim Scott, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence.
In a troubling trend for Haley, the former South Carolina governor’s favorability has declined from 59 percent in September to 45 percent in the new poll. Among voters who identified as “strong” Republicans that drop is more pronounced: just 38 percent said they have a favorable view of Haley in the most recent poll, down from 65 percent in September.
Meanwhile, 66 percent of respondents said they have a favorable impression of Trump, up from 60 percent in September. His favorability among “strong” Republicans is up from September as well, to 84 percent.
After finishing eleven points behind Trump in the Granite State, Haley’s odds of winning the GOP nomination look longer than ever. She aims to use her home-field advantage to help her court enough voters ahead of the state’s February 24 Republican primary to take on Trump’s loyal fan base in the state and remain competitive in the race.
Haley could be boosted by the fact that South Carolina voters do not register by party. Voters who cast a ballot in the Democratic primary on February 3 are prohibited from voting in the GOP primary, however.
For Haley to prove she has the momentum to sustain a campaign after South Carolina, she’ll have to at least come within single digits of Trump, Palmetto State strategist Dave Wilson previously told National Review. (Many said the same thing heading into New Hampshire, where Haley’s campaign is now moving goalposts and celebrating having defied some polls that showed her lagging 20 points behind.)
“Nikki has played in the political blood sport of South Carolina in several elections as a member of the South Carolina house of representatives and twice as governor,” Wilson said. “She understands what needs to be done in order to win. The question is, will there be enough funding to do the advertising and the groundwork that she needs to overcome a very strong cheering squad that Trump has in legislative and political leaders.”
He pointed to Haley’s gubernatorial win in 2010, when she went from fifth place to second place in a matter of five weeks, giving her enough momentum to make it into a runoff election that she ultimately won.
“In South Carolina politics, four weeks is a lifetime,” he said.
However, Trump’s loyalty among his base is unlike anything Haley has come up against before. It is unprecedented for a Republican candidate in a contested primary to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, evidence of Trump’s lasting hold on the party. And Trump has a loyal contingent of voters in the Palmetto State, along with a strong backing from the state’s congressional delegation and state lawmakers.
Even if Trump is convicted of a crime in any of the four criminal cases he currently faces after he wins the nomination, 60 percent of respondents said he should remain as the nominee. Thirty-six percent said he should be replaced by another candidate.
If Trump were convicted and remained the nominee, 62 percent of respondents said they would still support the former president. Seventeen percent said they’d back President Biden instead, while another 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate. Among voters who supported Trump in the 2020 election, 82 percent said they would vote for the former president if he were convicted.
Fifty-seven percent of potential GOP primary voters in the state say the 2020 election outcome was the result of fraud; of those voters, 85 percent support Trump. Meanwhile, Haley wins the support of 70 percent of voters who believe Biden was elected “fair and square.”
The poll was conducted between January 26 and 30 among a sample of 815 potential GOP primary voters.