Four Sun-Belt states appear to be back in play for Democrats with Vice President Kamala Harris narrowing the gap with former president Donald Trump in Georgia and Nevada and taking the lead in Arizona and North Carolina, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found.
Harris currently holds a five-percentage-point polling advantage over Trump among likely voters in Arizona at 50 percent to 45 percent, and she has moved in front of the former president in North Carolina with a two-point lead.
Though President Joe Biden won Arizona in the 2020 presidential election, that year’s contest was the first time a Democrat took the state since 1996. The last time a Democrat won the Tar Heel State was in 2008, and before that, 1976.
Polling averages reflect the New York Times/Siena College survey’s demonstration of a shift toward Harris in Sun-Belt swing states.
The RealClearPolitics average had Trump with a six-point lead over Biden in Arizona immediately before the president ended his re-election campaign, and while the outlet currently shows Trump leading Harris in North Carolina by 1.2 percentage points, that lead has shrunk since the current president left the race.
One potential reason for Harris’s success in polling data when compared to Biden is an enthusiasm gap. The New York Times/Siena survey shows that 85 percent of Democratic voters are excited to vote for the vice president, a similar number to the percentage of Republicans enthusiastic about Trump. In May, the same poll showed a significant Republican advantage on the question of enthusiasm.
Harris has also increased Democratic numbers among black and Hispanic voters, as well as among women, in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. She has a 29-percentage-point lead over Trump among nonwhite voters and a 14-percentage-point advantage among women in those three states, with Trump and Biden having split the woman vote in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada in 2020.