Wisconsin has backed the eventual nominee of each party more often than any other state. There, Trump and DeSantis are running neck-and-neck.
Eight Republican presidential contenders will converge in Wisconsin on Wednesday evening — a state where four of the past six presidential elections have been decided by less than a percentage point.
That Republicans have chosen to hold both their first presidential primary and their national convention in the Badger State is no coincidence; the state is one of just a few true swing states that will likely remain so in 2024 and has the best record among all states of supporting the eventual nominee of each major party.
Former president Donald Trump, who will be notably absent from the debate, won the state against Hillary Clinton in 2020 by 0.77 points but then lost to President Biden four years later by 0.56 points. In 2000, Al Gore won the state by just 0.22 points, and in 2004, John Kerry won by 0.38 points.
The most recent Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin voters, which was conducted between June 8 and 13, found Biden would carry the state 52 percent to Trump’s 43 percent in a hypothetical general-election matchup. By contrast, if Florida governor Ron DeSantis were to be the Republican nominee, the general election would be a tighter race, with 49 percent of respondents voicing support for Biden and 47 percent choosing DeSantis. In both cases, 4 percent of voters said they were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Notably, while Trump has a hefty lead over DeSantis in most early-state and national polling, the pair are running neck-and-neck in Wisconsin, according to the poll, which found the former president has captured 31 percent of the Republican and GOP-leaning electorate compared with the governor’s 30.
Mike Pence trailed behind with 6 percent, followed by Tim Scott at 5 percent.
The poll was conducted before Trump’s third and fourth indictments were handed down. Nationally, Trump leads with 55.9 percent of the vote, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average. DeSantis sits at a distant second with 14.6 percent support.
The debate stage on Wednesday evening will feature DeSantis, former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, former vice president Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum. The candidates will face off in a debate moderated by Fox News’s Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, while Trump will instead participate in a pre-recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that is reportedly set to air at the same time as the debate.
Miami mayor Francis Suarez, talk-radio host Larry Elder, and businessman Perry Johnson all claimed to have met the donor and polling requirements to make the debate stage but ultimately did not make the cut.
Scott’s campaign told National Review that the senator plans to “share his positive, conservative message” at the debate.
“This debate is another opportunity to connect with millions of voters across the country and show why Tim has faith in America and why he is the strongest candidate to beat Joe Biden,” Scott spokeswoman Nicole Morales said. Scott is polling in seventh place with 3 percent support, according to the RCP average, but has notched third place in several early primary polls.
A Pence campaign source tells National Review that the vice president will have a good debate “if he conveys being the steady, consistent conservative and the adult in the room ready to do the job on Day One.”
Meanwhile, Democrats have their own plans to steal attention away from the Republican debate. The DNC has booked a plane to fly around Milwaukee on debate night with a banner that says, “GOP 2024: A Race for the Extreme MAGA Base,” according to Politico Playbook.
The party will also erect three billboards near the site of the debate, one of which will feature photos of President Biden and Vice President Harris along with the message: “Record number of new jobs; Lowering costs; Updating our nation’s roads and bridges; Protecting a woman’s right to choose nationwide.” The other billboards feature photos of the Republican candidates that lays out the “2024 Republicans’ MAGA Agenda,” which includes “Higher costs for working families; Tax giveaways for the rich; [a] National abortion ban.” The Democrats have also contracted a mobile billboard to drive near the venue “highlighting the records of the Republican candidates.”
While Republicans have had notable wins in the state recently, including the reelection of U.S. senator Ron Johnson last year and growing majorities in the state legislature, Democrats have won 14 of the past 17 statewide elections, including a state supreme court race in April.
Liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz defeated conservative judge Dan Kelly by ten points in that race, leading some pundits to warn that the race was a “five-alarm warning to Republicans about 2024.”
But strategists told National Review at the time that they fully expect Wisconsin to remain up for grabs.
“I think if people step back and look more closely at the Supreme Court race, they realize the margin was due to a bad candidate on our side and a humongous resource advantage on their side,” Wisconsin-based Republican political strategist Mark Graul said. “And that’s not reflective of the close nature of the state of Wisconsin.”
Graul said his biggest takeaway from the state supreme court race is that the party must run better candidates who will appeal to a broader class of voters, particularly suburban voters and female voters.
Asked how that lesson might play out in 2024, Graul acknowledged that Trump “does not fit that bill.”
“I think there’s fatigue with him. I think we’ve seen in Wisconsin, really, the erosion of suburban voters to be traced to his rise, frankly,” he said