Montana is one of Senate Republicans’ best pickup opportunities, along with Ohio and West Virginia.
Hard-right congressman Matt Rosendale announced Friday morning that he will challenge three-term Democratic senator Jon Tester again in 2024 after losing to him in 2018, setting the stage for a contentious and costly Republican primary in a must-win state for Senate Republicans this cycle.
Rosendale’s entrance in the race was undercut Friday afternoon when former President Donald Trump announced that he will back wealthy businessman, former Navy SEAL, and political newcomer Tim Sheehy, whom the National Republican Senatorial Committee had endorsed early on in the race to avoid a messy GOP primary in one Senate Republicans’ best pickup opportunities of the cycle.
Sheehy endorsed Trump early on in the race and even campaigned for him on the ground ahead of the January 15 Iowa caucus. Rosendale, by contrast, waited until October to throw his support behind Trump, an announcement that came just one day after he had given a curious interview to a Montana-based radio host in which the congressman suggested his endorsement of Trump might “hurt” him in the GOP presidential primary.
Rosendale now enters the contest with high name ID but without key support from Trump, National GOP spending groups, or his ally House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was reportedly strongly considering endorsing Rosendale’s Senate campaign but decided to simply donate to his campaign instead.
Support from Washington Republicans cuts both ways. While Sheehy will certainly benefit from the millions in spending that a number of outside groups — including the NRSC and the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund — will contribute in the state on his behalf, Rosendale allies argue that support from Washington Republican is viewed as circumspect by base GOP voters.
Rosendale roughly two-minute Senate announcement video mentions the Senate minority leader by name numerous times. “This Republican primary race is the people of Montana versus Mitch McConnell, Joe Biden, and the Washington insiders,” the congressman says in the video. “McConnell knows I won’t follow his orders. He’s fixing to find out that the people of Montana won’t follow his orders either by letting him take our next senator. But they’ve made a big mistake. Montanans don’t take orders from Washington.”
Sheehy, the CEO of aerial firefighting company Bridger Aerospace, is also personally wealthy and expected to pour lots of his own resources into the race through the primary. He spent $4 million in campaign funds last year and was sitting on roughly $1.3 million as of January 1, according to Federal Election Commission reports. A super PAC backing Sheehy has also raked in millions from a number of deep-pocketed Republican donors, including Ken Griffin and Paul Singer.
Those supporting Sheehy argue that Senate Republicans should not risk running someone like Rosendale, who isn’t a strong fundraiser and lost to Tester by 3.5 points in 2018 in a state that former president Donald Trump carried by 16 points two years later. Rosendale raised less than $100,000 last quarter and had roughly $1.7 million in his House campaign account as of December 31, according to FEC reports. That cash can be transferred to his Senate campaign.
Meanwhile Rosendale’s supporters argue that this cycle is a completely different environment than the 2018 blue wave, when Republicans lost many battleground races because of voter backlash to Trump two years into his term.
Whoever wins the GOP primary will face tough competition in Tester, chairman of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee who is now seeking a fourth term. The Democratic incumbent is campaign is well-attuned to his state, which is red-leaning but more particular than most states about electing Montanans to office. The third-generation Montana farmer often jokes about losing three fingers in a meat-grinding incident as a child and posts photos on his campaign’s social media accounts of the beef he butchers on his farm.
But he is running for re-election alongside Biden, with whom he votes more than 90 percent of the time.
“Whatever people thought in 2018, I’m not so sure that they will think the same thing in 2024,” says Art Wittich, Montana’s Republican National Committeeman. “Not only do you have Jon Tester’s voting record, but you have an extremely liberal president who he has been supporting. So I think this is a totally different race.”
Former Trump adviser and podcast host Steve Bannon will barnstorm the state on Rosendale’s behalf in March, a source close to the campaign told National Review. The congressman will also tout the support of in-state lawmakers like speaker of the Montana house Matt Regier and state senate president Jason Ellsworth, along with out-of-state conservative U.S. senators Mike Lee of Utah.
Rosendale spent the weeks leading up to Friday’s official launch traveling around Montana with hard-right Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, the architect of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster from leadership in October. “The outpouring of support that we received at each one of the venues — literally overbooked at every location — was certainly very encouraging,” Rosendale told NR in late January.
This article has been updated to reflect Trump’s endorsement of Sheehy.