As President Joe Biden digs in his heels at the top of the Democratic ticket, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted six swing states toward former president Donald Trump, with three — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — moving from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”
The most important swing states in the race — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — remain in the “Toss Up” category. But three other states have moved toward Trump, going from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic” — Minnesota, New Hampshire, and one of Nebraska’s three electoral votes.
“The notion that the presidential [race] is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate,” David Wasserman, CPR’s senior editor, said in a social media post Tuesday. “Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.”
The new ratings from a renowned political forecaster weaken the president’s hand as he seeks to stay in the race. The president’s “post-debate dip represents the biggest polling shift of the year,” Wasserman said Wednesday morning. If Trump won every state rated by CPR as at least “Lean Republican,” he would be only two electoral college votes short of the 270 required to take the White House.
Even as members of the Congressional Black Caucus rally around the incumbent in an effort to stop the bleeding on Capitol Hill, Biden continues to underperform with black and Hispanic voters relative to 2020.
“Trump’s current numbers among Black and Latino voters are incompatible with any plausible Democratic victory scenario,” Wasserman said.
But Biden has insisted he will continue his reelection bid even as he slips in the polls. The CPR polling average showed Biden trailing Trump by more than two points at 44.3 percent, and the RealClearPolitics average has him down more than three points.
This week, the push on Capitol Hill for a new nominee slowed but did not stall. Seven Democrats in Congress have publicly called for the president to step aside, one of whom — Representative Mike Quigley (D., Ill.) — told National Review that “a lot” of his colleagues privately agree with him. “The line is: ‘I agree with you. I’m not going public – yet,’” he told NR in a brief interview Monday.
But many members — from Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) — have continued to support the president. Even Representative Jerry Nadler (D., N.Y.), who reportedly called for Biden to step aside during a private call led by Jeffries, seemed to reverse course on Tuesday, telling reporters Democrats “have to support” the president.