With six weeks before Election Day, the storm offers DeSantis an opportunity to showcase his leadership skills during a non-partisan emergency.
As Hurricane Ian barrels north through the Gulf of Mexico on what appears to be a crash course with Florida, it comes packed with both opportunities and potential hazards for political candidates on the ballot this fall – particularly for Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
With six weeks before Election Day, the storm offers DeSantis an opportunity to showcase his leadership skills during a non-partisan emergency, Florida-based political analysts and strategists told National Review. As the state’s chief executive, DeSantis is already getting loads of free TV time to give updates on the state’s emergency management operations. And if the storm makes landfall in a large population center or does significant damage, he can lead from the ground, meeting with residents and business owners to help them recover.
“We never wish for natural disasters or emergencies during campaigns. But the one thing these situations do is they allow a platform for good leaders to lead,” said Marc Reichelderfer, a Tallahassee-based Republican political consultant.
The free or “earned media” that comes with a hurricane can be a significant political benefit to candidates, and particularly to incumbent leaders who perform well during the crisis, said Ben Torpey, a Republican strategist from Gainesville. But there’s the rub: “If they screw up the response, then it’s an absolute disaster on top of a disaster,” Torpey said.
Hurricanes have long been a test for political leaders, particularly in Florida. Former governor Jeb Bush burnished his political resume with a strong response to a series of hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. He held regular news conferences during major storms, and helped keep Florida operating as the state got hit again and again and again, winning approval from many of his critics along the way and eventually leaving office with 64-percent approval rating.
Similarly, former governor Rick Scott, now Florida’s junior senator, highlighted his leadership abilities when several hurricanes hit the state during his second term in Tallahassee. Typically dressed in what the New York Times called “disaster casual” – a button-down shirt and a baseball cap that read NAVY – Scott met with leaders at county emergency operations centers, was omnipresent on television offering updates and warnings, and traveled to communities after a hurricane hit, giving his cell phone number to residents and local officials.
Scott’s response to Hurricane Michael, which walloped the Panama City area just weeks before the 2018 election, may have helped him defeat Bill Nelson in that year’s senate race.
And there’s still debate over whether or not Barack Obama owes his second term to Superstorm Sandy, which devasted much of the eastern seaboard barely a week before the 2012 presidential election.
“People in times of crisis expect to see their chief executive in the middle of it, not just from afar, but sleeves rolled up, going around the state where it’s hardest hit, making things move, making things happen, constantly informing the public,” said Susan MacManus, professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Florida in Tampa.
On the flip side, former Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum – DeSantis’s Democratic opponent in the 2018 governor’s race – was damaged politically by what many saw as his lackluster response to Hurricane Hermine in 2016. The storm, which made landfall near the capital city in September of that year, downed trees and powerlines, leaving many residents without electricity for days on end, and in some cases for over a week.
This year, polls show DeSantis with a steady lead over Democrat Charlie Crist (the Real Clear Politics poll average shows DeSantis with a 4.8 percent lead in the race). Crist is also a former Florida governor, but the state didn’t get hit with a hurricane during his one term.
As the incumbent governor, DeSantis will likely receive more media coverage than Crist as Hurricane Ian approaches Florida and in the days after it makes landfall. DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency ahead of what he’s described as a “really, really big hurricane.” He’s activated thousands of National Guard members, and made efforts to bring fuel into the state. Florida’s emergency management department is also experienced and well regarded, another benefit for the incumbent governor. “The good news for all Floridians is the Department of Emergency Management is seen as like the premiere agency in the country as far as preparedness,” said Mike Haridopolos, a former Florida state senate president who is now a political consultant.
Haridopolos said he expects DeSantis to rise to the occasion, as he did during the Covid-19 pandemic. “I think he handled the Covid situation really well,” Haridopolos said, adding that he believes DeSantis won’t be “afraid to make calls to the different companies to make sure power gets restored quickly, and to make sure those people who might be in a bad situation are helped out with every possible tool he has at his disposal.”
In addition to getting a lot of media coverage, Reichelderfer said DeSantis could also benefit if his contest with Crist is put on ice for a while. “These types of events have a way of freezing the race in place,” he said, noting DeSantis’s lead in the polls. “It really sets back Charlie Crist at chipping away at that lead if the race is frozen for the next week or two.”
MacManus said the hurricane offers DeSantis another opportunity to reinforce his reputation as a “take-charge kind of guy.” But, she said, he has at least one significant vulnerability. Florida has been experiencing a growing crisis of property insurers pulling out of the state or declaring insolvency. Rates are rising, and nearly 400,000 homeowners have lost coverage this year, often leaving the state on the hook. DeSantis called a special legislative session to help address the crisis, but Crist has been attacking him on the issue. MacManus said it is DeSantis’s “biggest liability.”
“That is a massively big issue,” she said, adding that she expects Crist will get press coverage on that line of attack. “He’s going to get a lot of free media.”
Torpey agreed. “It’s one of those issues that really hits home,” he said.
The political analysts who spoke with National Review said that while the hurricane will likely be a bigger factor in the race for governor, it also could come into play to a lesser extent in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Val Demings. Rubio can benefit by supporting DeSantis’s leadership, speaking out, and making efforts to secure disaster funding. But, Torpey said, “he’s not going to be shaking [President Joe] Biden’s hand saying thank you for the check.”
A lot will depend on where the storm makes landfall and how strong it is when it does.
If the storm hits as a lower-level hurricane in the less-populated Big Bend area – north of Tampa and southeast of Tallahassee – the political impact could be minimal. But if it lands as a powerful Category 3 or 4 hurricane in a major city like Tampa, or if it sits over the state and dumps rain for days, it could have a longer-term impact on this fall’s races.
Winning the I-4 corridor, the stretch between Tampa and Orlando, is still the key to winning statewide races in Florida, and Reichelderfer noted that, “If you’ve got major power outages in Tampa Bay, that’s a big impact on the election, especially depending on how long those power outages are going to be.”
Florida has been trending more Republican during recent election cycles, and Crist is still chasing DeSantis at this point. But if things go sideways with the storm, it still has a potential to shake up the governor’s race, MacManus said, adding, “You never say never in Florida.”