Vice President Kamala Harris has surpassed former president Donald Trump in seven battleground states, according to a new survey, demonstrating voters’ newfound enthusiasm for the presumptive Democratic nominee in contrast with President Joe Biden’s poor polling numbers prior to his withdrawal from the race.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey, completed on Sunday and released on Tuesday, shows 48 percent of registered voters backing Harris and 47 percent supporting Trump, signaling a tight race between the two candidates leading up to November. The slight lead that Harris pulled since Biden’s exit last week remains within the poll’s statistical margin of error of one percentage point.
The latest findings mark a notable shift from the same pollster’s last survey, conducted in early July, that showed Trump leading Biden by two points overall. Trump was also seen leading the incumbent in five of seven battleground states.
Following his faltering debate performance last month, Biden was facing numerous calls within his own party to end his reelection bid. Despite repeatedly saying he would stay in the race, the 81-year-old president stepped down on July 21 and subsequently endorsed his closest colleague.
In Tuesday’s poll, Harris is leading her Republican rival by eleven points in Michigan and two points each in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Trump maintains a four-point lead in Pennsylvania and a two-point lead in North Carolina. Meanwhile, the two are tied in Georgia. The margins of error for each state vary between three and five percentage points.
The poll surveyed 4,973 voters across all seven swing states between July 24 and 28, days after Harris rose to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket.
Harris quickly gained momentum as the newly appointed presumptive Democratic nominee, winning enough support from party delegates to secure the nomination in August and raising more than $200 million in her presidential campaign’s first week.
Now that the election is between Harris and Trump, one-third of voters say they’re much more likely to vote than they were when Biden was the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee. That sentiment increased greatly among black and Hispanic voters, with almost two-thirds of the former demographic saying they’re somewhat or much more likely to cast ballots in November.
“Harris’ switch to the top of the ticket appears to have excited her base,” said Alexander Podkul, senior director of research science at Morning Consult.
Respondents weighed in on how top election issues inform their perceptions of the two candidates. The majority of voters trust Trump to handle immigration: He had a 16-point lead over Harris in this area. Regarding voters’ beliefs on who can handle the economy better, Trump led his Democratic opponent by eight points.
A share of swing-state Democrats also gave their impressions of Harris’s potential running mates, naming Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, and Arizona senator Mark Kelly as the three most favorable contenders.
Harris is expected to announce her running mate by next Tuesday, when she will hold her first rally with her pick in Philadelphia, Politico reported. From there, the pair will embark on a four-day tour of several battleground states. Their remaining campaign stops will be western Wisconsin, Detroit, Raleigh, Savannah, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.
Other polls show Trump outperforming Harris nationally by a RealClearPolitics average of two points, with most of the top pollsters showing the Republican nominee besting the Democratic candidate in a five-way matchup.