The Democratic Party’s advantage over Republicans with black and Hispanic adults shrank by nearly 20 points over the last three years, according to a new Gallup poll, reaching the lowest point recorded since Gallup began tracking the numbers.
The poll, published Wednesday, found that the difference between the share of black adults who identify as Democrat or lean Democratic versus the share that identifies as Republican or lean Republican decreased from 66 percent in 2020 to 47 percent in 2023, the lowest level recorded since Gallup began tracking the number in 1999. Two-thirds of black adults identify as Democratic or lean Democratic compared to 19 percent who identify as Republican or lean Republican.
Hispanic adults have seen a similar trend, albeit not as drastic.
Democrats held a 12-point advantage over Republicans in the Hispanic demographic last year, marking a new low since 2011, when Gallup began interviewing in Spanish while conducting polls. This translates to 47 percent of Hispanics who identify as Democrat or lean Democratic, compared to 35 percent who identify as Republican or lean Republican.
Meanwhile, white adults are the only racial/ethnic group that does not favor the Democratic Party. Thirty-eight percent of white voters prefer Democrats, whereas 54 percent favor Republicans.
The poll also revealed that Democrats have an 8 percent lead among young Americans ages 18-29, the party’s lowest support among that demographic group since 2005.
Educational differences are also contributing to the party gaps, with Republicans edging out Democrats among non-college educated adults by 14 points. Similarly, 15 percent more men in the U.S. identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
Taking into account all of the findings, Gallup concluded that Democrats should be concerned about the newest data.
“The data show the Democratic Party retaining advantages among people of color and young adults, but in 2023 it was in a weaker position among these groups than at any point in the past quarter century,” a Gallup press release reads. “Democrats’ reduced support among Black and Hispanic adults should be especially concerning for the party, given Republicans’ continued strength among White adults, who remain the majority of the electorate.”
The poll appears to be in line with President Joe Biden’s dramatic loss of support, especially among minority groups. According to a USA Today/Suffolk University survey from January, the president’s support among blacks dropped from 87 percent in 2020 to 63 percent. His Hispanic support recently experienced a similar decline, with 34 percent down from 65 percent just four years ago.