Biden Risks ‘Alienating Base Supporters’ in Key Battleground States with Proposed Menthol Ban, Pollster Finds

A majority of core Biden voters oppose the administration’s proposed ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars, according to new polling by Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher commissioned by Altria tobacco.

Fifty-four percent of “core” Biden voters — defined as minority voters or non-conservative white voters under age 45 — oppose the proposed ban, according to the poll, which was obtained exclusively by National Review.

In each of the battleground states, a majority of core Biden voters oppose a ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars, including 53 percent of core Biden voters in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, 57 percent in Georgia, and 51 percent in Michigan.

“Candidates risk alienating base supporters in battleground states by taking up a cause that most voters oppose and don’t believe to be important,” the memo said.

A ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars is not even voters’ top priority for the FDA. Asked to rate the importance of eight priorities, 76 percent cited reducing opioid abuse as the top priority, 70 percent said authorizing prescription medication, and 64 percent said educating the public on food safety. Banning adult use of tobacco products was at the bottom of the list; just 18 percent of respondents said it is extremely important.

“Biden’s core voters are simply not comfortable with the idea of prohibition as a government approach to tobacco,” Belcher’s polling memo says. Nineteen percent said they’d prefer outright prohibition, while 74 percent said they’d prefer a harm reduction approach.

“With so many issues more pressing on voters’ minds – issues that voters actually agree with – these bans represent a very avoidable self-inflicted wound that could alienate base supporters in a battleground state,” the memo warned. “Adult use of tobacco is far from a top-tier concern, and voters recognize there are more important matters for the President, Congress, and the FDA to address. Candidates should not be taking up a cause that most voters oppose, that voters don’t believe to be important, and that can get in the way of a campaign’s ability to mobilize supporters.”

Seventy-five percent of voters cited the danger posed by illegal cigarettes coming from overseas with no safety testing as a top concern about the ban. Voters also expressed economic concerns, with 72 percent citing lost tax revenue and 65 percent citing job loss as top concerns. Sixty-eight percent cited concern over kids having more access to cigarettes on an illegal black market.

The survey was conducted by brilliant corners Research & Strategies between September 17 and October 10 among 3,021 likely voters who constitute the Biden core coalition. The sample included roughly 600 voters per battleground state. The overall margin of error for each statewide poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Belcher, the president of brilliant corners, worked on the polling team for both Obama presidential campaigns and previously served as pollster for the DNC.

The FDA has touted the ban as having the “potential to significantly reduce disease and death from combusted tobacco product use” by “reducing youth experimentation and addiction and increasing the number of smokers that quit.”

“The proposed rules would help prevent children from becoming the next generation of smokers and help adult smokers quit,” Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra previously  said. “Additionally, the proposed rules represent an important step to advance health equity by significantly reducing tobacco-related health disparities.”

But as National Review previously reported, opponents warn that a ban would have a number of unintended consequences, including increasing interactions between black Americans and police, and supercharging the illicit drug market.

The proposal has drawn criticism from groups and individuals across the political spectrum, including activists in law enforcement, drug policy, and criminal-justice reform, who argue that the ban would disproportionately impact black Americans, as nearly 85 percent of black smokers consume menthol products, according to the FDA. Just 30 percent of white smokers use menthol products, which account for roughly one-third of all cigarette sales nationwide.

In March, Law Enforcement Action Partnership (LEAP) led a group of organizations in sending a letter to Becerra and FDA commissioner Robert Califf warning that “policies that amount to prohibition for adults have serious racial justice implications.”

“Banning the legal sale of menthol cigarettes through licensed businesses will lead to illegal, unlicensed distribution in communities of color, trigger criminal laws in all 50 states, increase the incidence of negative interactions with police, and ultimately increase incarceration rates. There are far better solutions for reducing menthol cigarette use than criminalizing these products and turning the whole issue over to the police,” the letter adds.

The groups note the proposed ban comes at a time that government data show cigarette smoking, menthol-cigarette smoking, and underage menthol smoking are at all-time lows.

The signatories include Drug Policy Alliance, National Association of Black Law Enforcement Officers, Reason Foundation, The Sentencing Project, Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Tax Reform, and others.

Meanwhile, tribal leaders are sounding alarms about the proposed ban, warning it could be a boon to the cartels that already run rampant on tribal lands.

Marvin Weatherwax, the chairman of the Coalition of Large Tribes (COLT) and a member of the Blackfeet Tribal Business Council in the Blackfeet Nation in Montana, said cartels have a “big presence” in his community, where tribal police don’t have authority over nonmembers.

“They pretty much feel unmatchable; they’re just brazen, out in the open,” he said. “It’s almost like it’s raining fentanyl on our community.”

“So if they’re able to sell those illegal menthol cigarettes on our reservation, I’m sure more of our people are going to die over drug overdoses because this is another vehicle for them to addict people,” said Weatherwax, who is also a Montana state representative.

Pete Forcelli, a retired deputy assistant director at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and former NYPD officer, previously warned that a ban could have unintended consequences on crime.

He said organized-crime groups use money made from selling cigarettes to fund other things such as gun smuggling, drug smuggling, human trafficking, and other operations. Some illicit-tobacco trade has been traced back to terror groups like Hezbollah.

The ban would create a new market for illicit-tobacco smugglers, he warned.  “I know the cartels would capitalize on being able to smuggle mentholated cigarettes into the U.S.”