Thirty-eight percent of Americans now identify as “very conservative” or “conservative” on social issues, a level unseen since 2012, according to a new Gallup poll.
The percentage of Americans saying they have “very liberal” or “liberal” views on social issues has fallen from 34 percent to 29 percent in the last two years. Thirty-one percent of Americans identified their views on social issues as “moderate.”
Republicans had the largest shift toward social conservatism, with 74 percent saying their social views are conservative, a 14-point increase from 2021. Twenty-nine percent of independents said the same, up from 24 percent two years ago. Just ten percent of Democrats said they have conservative social views, a figure that remained unchanged from 2021 to 2023.
The biggest increases in social conservative ideology have been among middle-aged adults, Gallup found. In 2023, 35 percent of Americans ages 30 to 49 said they were “very conservative” or “conservative” on social issues, up 13 points from 22 percent in 2021. There was also a double-digit bump among Americans ages 50 to 64 — 46 percent now say they are “very conservative” or “conservative” on social issues, up 11 points from 35 percent in 2021.
Among those social issues is the question of whether transgender athletes should only be allowed to play on sports teams that match their biological sex. The poll found 69 percent of Americans believe transgender athletes should be limited to participating on teams that match their biological sex, compared to 62 percent who said the same in 2021.
Just 26 percent of Americans believe transgender athletes should be allowed to play on teams that match their preferred gender identity, a seven point drop from 2021.
That trend holds true even among Democrats: the new poll found 48 percent believe transgender athletes should only be allowed to play on teams that match their biological sex, compared to 41 percent who said the same in 2021. Political liberals are the only major subgroup in which a majority — 57 percent — supports allowing transgender athletes to choose which team to play on.
Meanwhile, 67 percent of independents and 93 percent of Republicans believe transgender athletes should not be allowed to choose what teams to compete on.
Gallup’s Values and Beliefs survey, which was conducted between May 1 and May 24, comes as at least 20 U.S. states have laws banning biological males from playing in women’s sports. The Republican-controlled U.S. House has passed similar legislation at the national level, though the measure has little chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate.
“Laws that restrict participation for transgender athletes are generally in line with U.S. public opinion on the issue,” Gallup senior editor Jeffrey Jones wrote. “People who know a transgender individual continue to be more accepting of pro-transgender policies than those who do not, but the relationship has weakened in the past two years. As a result, Americans have become less favorable to transgender athlete participation in single-gender sports than they were in 2021, even as more people say they know a transgender person.”
Thirty-nine percent of Americans said they personally know someone who is transgender, an eight-point increase from just two years ago. Thirty percent of those who know a transgender person believe transgender athletes should be allowed to play on teams that match their preferred gender identity — a 10 point decrease from 2021. Twenty-three percent of Americans who don’t know a transgender person said the same — an eight point drop from two years prior.
“It appears that Americans view transgender sports participation more through a lens of competitive fairness than transgender civil rights,” Jones added. “Even Democrats, who mostly support LGBTQ+ rights and affirm the morality of gender change, are divided on the issue of whether transgender athletes should be allowed to participate on teams that match their gender identity rather than birth gender.”
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has called the fight over fairness in women’s sport “the women’s issue of our time.”
“We don’t need boys playing in girls sports,” she said on the campaign trail in March. “That’s the women’s issue of our time, and no one is talking about it. My daughter ran track. I wouldn’t even know how to have that conversation with her.”
In April, the Biden administration unveiled a proposal that would prohibit schools from instituting policies that “categorically ban transgender students from participating on sports teams consistent with their gender identity.” The policy would allow schools to implement certain limitations in the interest of fairness or safety, however.
The proposed rule, which would impact any school or college that receives federal funding, would expand Title IX protections to include gender identity. Under the proposal, a “one-size-fits-all” ban on transgender athletes playing on teams that match their stated gender identity would be a violation of Title IX. The rule, which is likely to face challenges, will face a lengthy approval process.
The White House said in a news release that the proposal “also recognizes that in some instances, particularly in competitive high school and college athletic environments, some schools may adopt policies that limit transgender students’ participation.”
Any permitted limitation would be required to serve “important educational objectives,” such as fairness in competition and reduction of injury risks. Limitations would be more likely to be approved for older students in more competitive environments.
Meanwhile, the Gallup poll found a majority of Americans, 55 percent, believe “changing one’s gender” is “morally wrong,” while 43 percent say it is “morally acceptable.” In 2021, 51 percent said changing one’s gender was morally wrong, while 46 percent said it was morally acceptable.
The Gallup survey also recorded an uptick in economic conservatism, with 44 percent identifying as very conservative or conservative, the highest figure since 2012.