Trump’s grip on the GOP had never been stronger heading into the convention, and that was before he came inches from death.
Milwaukee — Even more stunning than the miracle of Donald Trump’s assassination-attempt survival was the remarkable nature of the shooter’s timing: Smack dab in the middle of an intraparty effort to nudge President Joe Biden out of the presidential race and a mere two days before the Republican nominating convention kicks off in Wisconsin.
Trump is set to formally accept his party’s nomination here this week at a time when his grip on the party has never been stronger. That he will do so mere days after a bullet grazed his ear at a Pennsylvania rally only supercharges an already chaotic presidential election that will be remembered in history books by Trump’s instinctive defiance in the face of it, raised fist, blood-spattered cheek and all.
“No matter what you think of Trump, there’s a certain amount of respect that has to be there for that kind of courage in the face of a shooting,” says Alabama GOP chairman John Wahl. “We’ve probably not seen a leader like that since Teddy Roosevelt.”
The optics of this year’s post-assassination attempt convention couldn’t contrast more sharply with 2016, when Ted Cruz delegates were brainstorming ways to free other anti-Trump delegates to vote their conscience at that year’s GOP convention in Cleveland.
“People started having sincere concerns about Trump being the nominee, and so I started investigating, is there another option for these delegates to be able to have a choice?” 2016 Colorado delegate and convention Rules Committee member Kendal Unruh recalled in a recent interview. “Obviously I failed in that whole effort,” she said, despite $3 million raised and political buy-in from high-profile Ted Cruz–supporting Republicans such as senator Mike Lee (R., Utah) and former Virginia attorney general Ken Cuccinelli.
This year, there will be no “vote your conscience” speech from Ted Cruz, no demand for a roll-call vote on party rules from Mike Lee, and no grassroots-led floor fight challenging Trump for the nomination.
An overwhelming 2024 GOP primary win, four criminal indictments, 34 felony convictions, and one near-death experience later, this is Trump’s party now. And this week’s confab in Milwaukee will reflect that, thanks in large part to the expert instincts of his closest campaign advisers.
Trump’s 2024 campaign is “significantly more sophisticated” than his 2016 political operation, says Mississippi’s RNC committeeman Henry Barbour. “This wasn’t something that just happened organically. It was strategic and it was smart,” Barbour tells National Review. “I’ve been doing this since 1988 and nobody has done it as thoroughly and as well as the Trump team has. And I haven’t agreed with every move they’ve made, but no question they have control of the party right now.”
The intensity of Trump’s political operation became especially apparent in the spring. In February, rumors began swirling that then RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel would resign from her role after South Carolina’s primary over frustrations from Trump-world over the national party’s lackluster fundraising, the GOP’s losing streak in recent cycles, and her decision to hold RNC-sanctioned GOP primary debates. In early March, McDaniel and her RNC co-chairman Drew McKissick were replaced by voice acclamation at an RNC meeting in Houston, Texas, with North Carolina GOP chairman Michael Whatley and the former president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, respectively. Then came a wave of firings and subsequent rehirings a few days later to ensure staff loyalty at the RNC amid Trump’s comeback campaign.
“It’s very knowledgeable, it’s well organized, and it’s very businesslike,” New Hampshire GOP chairman Chris Ager said of this year’s Trump operation. “They have a mission. The mission is to win.”
Like most presumptive nominees’ campaigns, Trump’s aides have been working behind the scenes to ensure that there’s as little party infighting as possible in Milwaukee. They spent months leading up to this week compiling slates of approved picks to state delegations for the highly influential convention platform and rules committees. That decision paid off politically, after a 16-page platform passed by a roughly 4–1 vote margin in committee.
The streamlined platform’s seamless passage is even more striking given how much its contents diverge from the 66-page 2016 platform, which was adopted again in 2020 during the pandemic. This year’s version reads like a Trump social-media post. It erases the national party’s prior commitments to a federal abortion ban, makes no mention of the Second Amendment, and has no references to entitlement reform.
That has some social-conservative organizations and Republicans worried that the campaign is prioritizing winning at the expense of conservative governance. And it raises questions about how the historic past few weeks will affect Trump’s 2024 running-mate calculus. “In 2016, Mike Pence solved a very real political problem for them, namely, that there was a significant lack of support for Trump amongst Evangelicals and pro-lifers, etc.,” Tim Chapman, an adviser to the Pence-founded nonprofit advocacy group Advancing American Freedom told NR on Friday.
This time around, the base is entirely united behind Trump, even as social-conservative groups like AAF worry that Trump is deviating far from the 2016 platform on matters of policy. Minority gripes with the 2024 platform notwithstanding, there is little doubt that Saturday’s assassination attempt will have a rallying-around-the-flag effect on Republicans this week.
“I find it astounding and alarming that there wasn’t better security than that. It’s horrifying,” says Iowa’s RNC committeeman Steve Scheffler. “People are going to be unified, and Trump’s going to get a huge response when he walks into the hall. But I also think it’s kind of sobering that we’re at this point in our society that people resort to violence — whether it’s against a Republican or a Democrat.”
Trump is “doing well, obviously shaken,” says Wahl, the Alabama GOP chairman who has communicated with the presumptive nominee’s team after Saturday’s shooting. “Obviously he’s incredibly heartbroken for the other victims, and committed to making sure their memory lives on, and also that this convention continues.”