Andrew Sullivan thinks it’s demoralization. Not quite. Re-enlistment rates are just fine. The Army missed its first-time enlistment targets by about 7,000 — close to the number it missed by in 1999, when the Army missed by 6,290 recruits. Did I sleep through the demoralizing war that was causing recruiting shortfalls in 1999? I do remember we had a booming economy that year. Do you think that had more to do with this year’s shortfall? Just maybe?
Another factor, which goes unreported in this AP account, is that the Army increased its recruiting goals to 80,000 from 72,000 last year. (The story does mention that the Army is trying to grow, but doesn’t mention the specific numbers — that 8,000-recruit increase that puts the 7,000-recruit shortfall in perspective).
It’s not the disaster that the media are going to make it out to be. That said, it’s still not a good sign that we can’t grow the Army as fast as we’d like. Nevertheless, the Army is taking steps to account for the competition it’s facing from the growing economy — by offering higher bonuses, for instance. It’s a challenge, not a crisis.