Nebraska Democratic senator Ben Nelson hails from one of only three states that have voted Republican by double-digits in each of the last five presidential elections (the others being Utah and Idaho). Sen. Nelson has survived by staying within shouting distance of his constituents’ views. His lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union is 47 (on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being the most conservative), compared to just twelve for Sen. Jim Webb, who doesn’t remotely represent the views of Virginians.
As Andy Wickersham and I have recently noted, voters went much easier on the more conservative Democrats in the 1994 election in the wake of Hillarycare than they did on typical Democrats — and that was without benefit of an official vote on Hillarycare. This time around, voters will likely base their assessment of how comparatively conservative a given member is on just a single vote: his or her vote on Obamacare. If 1994 is any guide, then regardless of whether Obamacare passes, that vote will determine many Democratic members’ fate.
So the moment of truth is here for Senator Nelson; and, to his credit, and potentially to the country’s great benefit, he seems to realize it. With just one vote, he will convey to voters in solidly red-state Nebraska whether he is truly representative of their views (albeit imperfectly) or not. The same is true, in their respective states, for Senators Webb, Bayh, Lincoln, Conrad, and others — but, unlike Nelson, they don’t yet seem to realize it.