The latest national ABC News/Ipsos poll has Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by two percentage points, with or without third-party and independent options. Considering how lousy the polls have been for Biden for much of this year, Democrats might feel like things are improving.
And yes, among respondents identified as living in swing states –Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina*, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden narrowly leads, 46 percent to 45 percent.
But the overall picture darkens — a lot — when you read down to the sixth paragraph:
That said, a chief question raised by the survey is why Biden is competitive at all, given his substantial disadvantages. Just 35 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, with 57 percent disapproving; that’s 2 points from his career low in approval in January and well below the level historically associated with reelection. Forty-three percent say they’ve gotten worse off financially under his presidency. An overwhelming 81 percent say he’s too old for another term. Trump easily outpoints him in perceived mental sharpness and physical health.
Trump, moreover, leads in trust to handle six of 10 issues tested in the survey, with Biden ahead in just two. That includes, for Trump, the three most-cited issues in importance — the economy, on which he has a 14-point advantage; inflation, again 14 points; and crime and safety, 8 points. He tops out with a 17-point lead in trust to handle immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border and leads by 8 points in trust to handle the war between Israel and Hamas and 7 points on “America’s standing in the world.” Biden’s leads are on abortion access (+12, but comparatively low-rated as an issue) and health care, +5.
Wait, there’s more!
Biden’s executive orders to forgive student loan debt get a mixed to negative reception: Forty-two percent say he’s doing too much in this regard, 22 percent too little and 34 percent the right amount.
Thirty-nine percent call it highly important to them whom Biden picks as his running mate; 35 percent say the same for Trump. Overall, 54 percent say Biden should replace Kamala Harris as his choice for vice president; among Democrats, however, 76 percent say he should keep Harris.
For a long while, lots of political analysts, including myself, have seen suburban women as a key demographic where Trump is weaker than the average Republican. In this survey, suburban women split evenly for Trump and Biden, 45 percent each. (Trump leads suburban men, 49 percent to 41 percent.) Biden’s advantage among women overall isn’t that high, either, just 47 percent to 43 percent. And Trump leads among white Catholics, 52 percent to 39 percent.
The much-discussed Trump surge among African-Americans did not show up in this survey; Biden leads, 74 percent to 13 percent. But Trump is almost tied among Hispanics, with Biden ahead, just 46 percent to 42 percent.
Overall, these numbers are abysmal for an incumbent Democratic president. Only Trump’s baggage is keeping Biden’s hopes of reelection alive.
*I continue to doubt that North Carolina is a genuine swing state, and Nevada’s looking not all that swing-y lately, too.