The Congressional Budget Office predicts that in 2026, Medicaid will have 15 million fewer beneficiaries if the Senate Republican bill passes than if it doesn’t. At Bloomberg View, I argue that the CBO’s assumptions are implausible.
Are states really going to cut their voting residents’ benefits to find savings of less than fifty cents on the dollar? Are [four million] people really going to stay off Medicaid if they’re not threatened with fines? (And if they are, how valuable is it?) If these assumptions are off in the way I’m suggesting, then the Republican legislation will save less money and result in more people getting coverage than the CBO thinks.