Jeremy Carl suggests, “Vice President Pence would be almost uniquely historically powerful, in contrast to the beta role he seems to be cast in by the media.”
It’s a particularly pertinent point in light of this report in the New York Times, suggesting Trump and those closest to him foresaw his vice president handling a lot of the policy details:
According to the Kasich adviser (who spoke only under the condition that he not be named), Donald Jr. wanted to make him an offer nonetheless: Did he have any interest in being the most powerful vice president in history?
When Kasich’s adviser asked how this would be the case, Donald Jr. explained that his father’s vice president would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy.
Then what, the adviser asked, would Trump be in charge of?
“Making America great again” was the casual reply.
Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, said before the Pence pick, “He needs an experienced person to do the part of the job he doesn’t want to do. He seems himself more as the chairman of the board, than even the CEO, let alone the COO.”
An interesting question would be whether Vice President Pence would rein in President Trump’s visions of massive new spending projects. Congressman Pence would probably have opposed Trump’s infrastructure proposal for a “trillion-dollar rebuilding plan.” Governor Pence may not be quite so opposed.
In Congress, Pence was the guy willing to defy his party on big-spending initiatives backed by the president: No Child Left Behind, TARP, and adding a prescription drug benefit to Medicare. But as governor, Pence adopted a modified version of the Obama administration’s Medicaid expansion called “Healthy Indiana 2.0” which includes premium contributions, health savings accounts, incentives for healthy behaviors, and a benefit lock-out for people who don’t pay premiums. Indianans seem pretty pleased with the changes so far, but conservative policy wonks see it as an expansion of the entitlement program.
Most recently, Pence wanted the Indiana Public Retirement System – the state public employees’ pension fund – to invest $500 million in “early-stage and mid-market Indiana companies.” Also this year, Pence approved a trigger mechanism in the state budget that will shift hundreds of millions to road funding; reserves will remain at 11.5 percent of the state’s budget.
But Pence can afford to spend; during the Pence years, after his enacted tax cuts, Indiana enjoyed growing tax revenues and a roughly 2 percent increase in spending.
Indiana has held AAA ratings with all three agencies, Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, since April of 2010; Pence took office in 2013. In April, Standard and Poor’s praised the state’s “structural balance, growth in reserve levels, and continued funding of long-term liabilities.” In June 2015, the state ended the fiscal year with a $2.1 billion surplus.
Indiana has enjoyed a relative economic boom under Pence; since January 2013, the size of the state’s workforce has increased by 186,527 people, 5.9 percent, and the unemployment rate has dropped from 8.4 percent to 5 percent. The unemployment rate is about the same as the national average, but the increase in the state’s workforce is large compared to other states.
Pence has shown some willingness to spend a surplus on infrastructure after enacting tax cuts. Would he set the same order of priorities in a Trump administration?