Kennedy’s bid seems less a threat to Biden than another obstacle in Trump’s path back to the White House.
For all Democrats’ hand-wringing about third-party spoilers, this one will chew more into the GOP’s vote share than that of the Democratic side — particularly if Donald Trump emerges as the Republican Party’s presidential nominee for a third consecutive election cycle.
The exclusive news, via Mediaite:
2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce he will run as an independent on October 9 in Pennsylvania, Mediaite has learned.
Kennedy’s campaign machine is now planning “attack ads” against the Democratic National Committee in order to “pave the way” for his announcement in Philadelphia about running as an independent, according to a text reviewed by Mediaite.
“Bobby feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy so an independent run is the only way to go,” a Kennedy campaign insider told Mediaite.
It’s been a while since Kennedy was the subject of much polling. The early enthusiasm around his campaign has dissipated, and his appeal to Democratic voters has all but disappeared. Just as an example of the low to which Kennedy’s brand has sunk, a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll of Granite State found that only 9 percent of Democratic primary voters still viewed him favorably.
Similarly, views of Kennedy among the GOP may have evolved since the summer. But back in July, a series of national polls of Republican voters found that RFK Jr. would have been welcomed in the GOP. Among registered and likely GOP voters, Kennedy’s favorability rating ranged from 46 to 54 percent — much higher than the share of potential Republican voters who viewed him unfavorably. Moreover, Kennedy’s image among GOP-leaning adults — that is, potential Republican voters who are nonetheless disengaged from the political process — Kennedy’s favorability ratings were even higher.
If Kennedy pulls the trigger on an independent bid in time to secure ballot access (and he has time to do that yet), it presents the GOP with a conundrum. If Trump is the nominee, he will be compelled to spend most of his time and the GOP’s resources on his legal defense against allegations of criminal misconduct. But when he’s actually out on the trail, he’ll have to devote at least a portion of the time he would otherwise dedicate to campaigning against the incumbent Democratic president to keeping Kennedy’s share of the Republican vote down. A non-Trump Republican presidential nominee would likely encounter a similar headache, but Trump’s brand of politics aligns more closely with Kennedy’s than with anyone else’s in the GOP field.
If it materializes, Kennedy’s bid seems less a threat to Biden than another obstacle in Trump’s path back to the White House.