The biggest difference between the parties is that the Republican Party is a vehicle for Donald Trump, but Joe Biden is a vehicle for the Democratic Party.
Earlier today, I argued that President Biden lost the election last night and that the only way Democrats win it is by dumping him. I just have a bit more to add on why I think the prospect of Biden being replaced is more likely than not.
The biggest difference between the two parties right now is that the Republican Party is a vehicle for Donald Trump, but Joe Biden is a vehicle for the Democratic Party.
That is, Trump enjoys deep popularity among a passionate base of supporters, and so Republican leaders have to go along with him, even at times when they have privately believed it could cost them the election.
Biden, in contrast, does not have such rabid supporters. His political standing derives only from the perception that he is the Democrats’ best hope of beating Trump.
Last night changed that calculation. Most Democrats now realize that Biden cannot win. And if there are some who have not yet realized it, I suspect the polling and fundraising numbers following the debate will cement that.
Don’t take anything you hear from Biden’s team claiming he won’t drop out and plans to debate again in September at face value; dismiss the words of any top Democrats who are publicly sticking by him. How many times have we seen flailing primary candidates signal they are sticking in the race all the way to the convention and point to scheduled events in future primary states — only to drop out the next day? And for elected officials, there is no reason to publicly call on Biden to drop out and put that on the record when you don’t know for sure that he will. So, such statements need to be discounted.
As for the Vice President Kamala Harris question, which I have addressed at greater length before, here’s the thing: After last night’s debate, few people believe that Biden will be able to serve out a full four-year term. In which case, the presidential race will already be a de facto race between Harris and Trump. If that is the case, they may as well put her at the top of the ticket.
The Democratic Party wants to win. They desperately want to avert a second Trump term, which they genuinely fear — even more so after today’s Supreme Court decisions. They are a disciplined and organized party that is not going to be willing to tank this election to avoid hurting Biden’s feelings.
If enough people whom he trusts organize an intervention in which they convince him and Jill Biden that if he doesn’t get out of the race, it will reelect Trump and he will be blamed for everything that comes after, he will feel guilty enough to throw in the towel.
Perhaps he is just stubborn and arrogant enough to stay in the race, so I’m not saying this is a lock — but I now believe it is the likeliest scenario.
For the past year I have been one of the biggest skeptics of the idea that Democrats were going to replace Biden. I said he would be the nominee barring something extraordinary. Well, last night was something extraordinary.