From the last Morning Jolt of the week:
What’s the Matter With New Hampshire?
Tomorrow, a good chunk of the National Review gang will be in Manchester, New Hampshire for our debate-analysis and podcast-taping event. It’s sold out now; sorry if you missed the chance to attend.
This may not be the New Hampshire we thought we knew.
It’s a state with a stunning drug problem:
New Hampshire saw at least 385 drug deaths in 2015, according to the latest tally from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner — but the actual total could be even higher, as some 45 cases are still pending toxicology.
Toward the end of last year, state officials began warning that the state could end up surpassing 400 drug deaths total for 2015. Even if the current figure remains the same, however, that would still make 2015 the deadliest in recent years when it comes to drug overdose fatalities.
Local officials paint a grim portrait: “The [Manchester] fire chief said the epidemic is affecting everyone: The youngest person firefighters treated was 16 and the oldest, 69. The overdose victims have been found in hotels, public buildings, restaurants, parked vehicles and while driving motor vehicles. The youngest fatality, he said, was 18; the oldest, 51.”
It’s affecting the schools: “Citing concern about illegal drug use, the Berlin school board will be making the anti-overdose drug Narcan available in its schools. Berlin becomes the fifth school district in New Hampshire to allow the use of Narcan, according to a state official who did not immediately identify the other four.
It’s not just drugs; this is arguably the hardest-drinking state in the union: “The Granite State averaged a per capita consumption of ethanol from alcoholic beverages of 4.65 gallons in 2012, nearly twice the national average of 2.33 gallons and the largest mark for any state.” (That figure could be inflated by cross-border sales, which the New Hampshire Liquor Commission says accounts for about half of all alcohol sales in the state.)
Maybe it’s the cold winters, but something has teenagers drinking more, too: “35 percent of New Hampshire 12-20 year olds report drinking alcohol in the past 30 days; by comparison, nationally the number is closer to 25 percent and 29 percent in the Northeast.”
What’s really troubling is that the state is enduring this crisis when a lot of other factors are going well: “New Hampshire survived the Great Recession better than many states. Today it ranks at or near the top in several categories that measure a state’s health, like median household income, level of education and general well-being. Its rates of unemployment, crime and people living below the poverty line are among the lowest.”
However, the figures may not be telling the whole story:
While many Massachusetts residents previously moved to New Hampshire, that migration is no longer occurring, according to Steve Norton, executive director of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies.
With baby boomers retiring, there is no one to replace the working-age population, he said, adding the amount of working-age residents in New Hampshire is expected to soon decline by about 10 percent.
“Counties losing population are also losing economic vibrancy,” explained Norton. In order to look ahead at the state’s future, he said New Hampshire must look toward migration…
The state’s electric rates are about 46 percent higher than the national average, he said, adding large businesses will likely not move to New Hampshire if the electric costs are higher here than other areas of the country.
This is the third-oldest state, and there’s been a lot of turnover in the voter pool: “More than 30 percent of potential voters this year were either not old enough to vote in 2008, or resided somewhere other than New Hampshire…. Among those 25 and older, who make up the bulk of the voting age population, just 33 percent of New Hampshire residents were born in the state.”
Remember this jaw-dropping study?
The mortality rate for white men and women ages 45-54 with less than a college education increased markedly between 1999 and 2013, most likely because of problems with legal and illegal drugs, alcohol and suicide, the researchers concluded. Before then, death rates for that group dropped steadily, and at a faster pace.
The debate in New Hampshire would be a good time and place for the candidates to offer their prescription to revive the economic and social prospects of white, working-class voters.