The China Coast Guard’s assault on Philippines military vessels executing a resupply mission at the Second Thomas Shoal on June 17 risked starting a war that could draw America in under the U.S.-Philippines mutual-defense treaty.
A new factor compounding this risk is an unprecedented regulation issued by the CCG that took effect two days prior to that incident.
The rule, called China Coast Guard regulation number 3, gives it the authority to detain foreign ships and people in “waters under China’s jurisdiction” for 60 days, according to a legal analysis issued by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
That, of course, extends to Beijing’s sweeping territorial claims in the South China Sea. Even though the Philippines administers the Second Thomas Shoal and an international arbitral tribunal ruled against China’s territorial claims, the CCG is asserting that right to detain vessels operating in the territorial waters of the Philippines.
Beijing already gave the CCG the authority to use lethal force against foreign vessels operating in the waters that China claims in a 2021 law. The new regulation now adds to the CCG’s toolkit.
Per the analysis, the regulation that took effect this week provides “pretext for unlawful enforcement of CCG Regulation #3 on the high seas and in foreign exclusive economic zones (EEZ) where all nations enjoy high-seas freedoms of navigation, overflight, and other lawful uses of the sea.”
Indo-Pacom’s legal analysts also explain that it could be used to “justify continued and increasingly forceful interference with lawful activities by the Philippines in the Philippine EEZ,” and that the timing of the announcement could be an attempt to deter the Philippines from operating around the Second Thomas and Scarborough Shoals.
Resupply missions at the Second Thomas Shoal almost certainly fit into the category of activities that the CCG could try to disrupt, using the tactics enabled by this regulation. It’s not hard to see what might could happen next. During the attack this week, the CCG reportedly seized two Philippines rubber boats, before looting then abandoning them, and a Filipino sailor lost a finger during the melee. Beijing clearly wants to escalate further. Its Coast Guard now has the go-ahead to take hostages.