Last week, I said that I didn’t buy the polls showing Democrat Tim Kaine ahead of Republican Jerry Kilgore. I mainly had in mind the Washington Post poll, which has, as the Republicans have been saying, tended to underpredict Republican performance. But the evidence that Kaine is ahead has continued to come in both from other polls and from the general consensus of Va. political observers. Chad Dotson is, however, still betting on Kilgore.
I can’t say I’d be all that disappointed by a Kilgore loss. I like Kaine’s opposition to the death penalty, dislike Kilgore’s over-the-top demagoguery on the issue, and dislike Kilgore’s waffling on taxes, too. But a Kilgore defeat will be a real blow to Republicans. If he loses, it will rightly be taken as a reflection of their (and Bush’s) current unpopularity.