This month, two separate polls have been released on Florida’s Question 4, which would place legal abortion in Florida’s state constitution. Both polls show that support for this ballot question falling well short of the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Last week Victory Insights released the results of a poll of likely voters it conducted in late September. It has the ballot measure receiving 49.7 percent support. Similarly, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of likely Florida voters found Question 4 receiving only 46 percent support
The demographic breakdown of support for the ballot proposition was unsurprising. Both polls found that strong pluralities of Republicans opposed the measure. The New York Times/Siena College poll found that the only age demographic offering greater than 60 percent support for Question 4 were voters between the ages 18 and 29. The poll found above-average opposition to the ballot measure among voters over the age of 45, white voters, and residents of Northern Florida.
All of this bodes well for Florida pro-lifers. Support for ballot questions usually declines during the fall. Furthermore, a substantial body of polling data from the recent abortion ballot questions in both Michigan and Ohio showed that neither appreciably gained public support during the course of the campaign. Though supporters of legal abortion will doubtless make large investments in Florida in October and early November, these two polls clearly show that victory for pro-lifers is within reach.