Last week, two polls of Florida voters were released. Both found that Question 4, which would place legal abortion in Florida’s constitution, falling short of the 60 percent needed for passage. Specifically, a poll of over 1,000 registered voters conducted by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research USA shows Question 4 receiving 56 percent support. Similarly, a USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll of 500 likely voters found that Question 4 received 58 percent support.
There will be ballot questions involving abortion in approximately eleven states this fall. The Florida ballot proposition might well the most important for pro-lifers. This is for two reasons. First, unlike other states, Florida requires that ballot propositions receive 60 percent of the vote to pass. This makes a pro-life victory easier to achieve in Florida than in states where ballot propositions need only majority support to prevail.
Second, a very large number of preborn lives are at stake. Even though Florida has been trending more Republican in recent years, it has an above-average abortion rate. Guttmacher data indicate that, as of 2020, Florida had the fifth-highest abortion rate in the country. In 2023, over 84,000 abortions were performed in the Sunshine State.
However, on May 1, a heartbeat law in Florida took effect. It protects preborn children after six weeks’ gestation. Preliminary data from Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration indicate that approximately 4,000 abortions per month have occurred since June 2024. That is about a 40 percent decrease from Florida’s 2023 monthly abortion average. Of course, if Question 4 passes, the Heartbeat Act would be struck down, endangering the lives of thousands of preborn children.
Overall, these polls are good news for Florida pro-lifers. A body of polling data from Michigan and Ohio showed that previous abortion ballot propositions failed to appreciably gain support over the course of the campaign. Florida pro-lifers certainly face a long and potentially difficult election. Supporters of legal abortion will certainly invest heavily in Florida. However, the fact that multiple polls have Question 4 falling below the 60 percent threshold necessary for passage does show that victory is within reach for Florida pro-lifers.