As noted yesterday, the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights just released a report on racial disparities in crime victimization, a topic the examination of which progressives had resisted for some time. The report showed that Trump is correct that there have been sizeable increases in crime over the past four years.
John Lott Jr., former senior adviser for research and statistics at the Department of Justice’s Office of Justice Programs, was one of the witnesses at the hearing that had adduced the data on which the commission’s report is based. (Lott has testified before the commission several times during my tenure. Of the hundreds of witnesses who’ve appeared before the commission during that time, no one has been treated with greater hostility by progressives than he. I’d long suspected that such treatment was due to his usually bringing hard data to the table — which are more difficult for progressives to refute/spin than mere opinion.)
Lott notes that data just released by the Justice Department show — contrary to the mainstream-media narrative — that there has been a dramatic increase in violent crime since Trump left office. Lott further notes that, during last week’s presidential debate, ABC News anchor David Muir purported to fact-check Trump on crime, stating that “the FBI says overall violent crime is coming down in this country.” This operated as both a rebuke to Trump and an assurance to the millions of voters watching the event that crime under Biden-Harris is lower than it was under Trump.
Lott notes, however, that recently released Justice Department stats show that major crimes such as rape, robbery, and aggravated assault are 55 percent higher than they were when Trump left office, and while “the murder rate dropped by 13% in 2023, [it] remains 5% higher than 2019.” According to Lott, these increases are “by far the largest percentage increases over any three-year period on record, more than doubling the previous record.”
A diligent reporter might wish to ask Vice President Harris whether she disputes her Justice Department’s stats. Or, perhaps, ask Mr. Muir.