The GOP picked a bad candidate, and Americans are embracing the alternative.
Let me stipulate for the record: The American press is an embarrassment. Journalists are being unfair in their coverage. CNN and Politico and the New York Times and the Associated Press and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt and NPR News are hyping Kamala Harris as the second coming and putting a thumb, two hands, and a 45-pound dumbbell on the scales in an attempt to prop her up.
It also doesn’t matter. None of it is remotely decisive.
The reason why the Republican Party is, at the moment, on track to lose the 2024 election is that the Republican Party is a minority coalition that picked a very unpopular 78-year-old retread as its candidate.
Yes, this summer when the public was faced with the choice between the Democrats’ unpopular, probably senile, octogenarian Joe Biden and the Republicans’ unpopular, definitely nuts, septuagenarian Donald Trump, it seemed like the American people would reluctantly go with Trump.
But at the same time, American voters for two years running had loudly and repeatedly told both parties, pollsters, and anyone who would listen that they preferred a different set of choices. The dominant emotion that most Americans felt about the coming election was dread. And then, in a remarkable turn of events, the Democratic Party gave Americans another option: Kamala Harris.
Is Harris an ideal candidate? Is she an incredibly talented orator? Is she deft on her feet and nimble in debate? Is she a famous wonk? Does she have a long track record of competence at the state and federal level? Has she been scrutinized by a tough no-nonsense press and come out stronger on the other side? No, of course not — but she’s an alternative to Trump/Biden, and that’s probably going to be enough.
The avalanche of “Did You Know That Kamala Harris Likes to Cook?” fluff stories in the New York Times and the embarrassing “Doug Emhoff, Modern-Day Sex Symbol” pieces in the Washington Post are not going to change the fundamental dynamic of this election. And that dynamic is this: The GOP electoral coalition is the smaller, weaker coalition. It’s lost the popular vote seven out of nine times in my lifetime (I’m 36). It has lost the Electoral College three out of the last four cycles. Conservatives might not be very eager to hear this, but “We the People” are mostly Democrats.
Does that make it impossible for Republicans to win this time around? Certainly not. Republicans won sweeping victories in 2010, 2014, and 2016.
Notably, however, the Republicans were outsiders in all three of those big election-year wins, and the public was putting the GOP in power as a check against Democrats.
Donald Trump won by a razor’s edge in 2016 and yet has carried on as though he was given a huge national mandate and enjoys major popular support when there’s zero evidence for that proposition. The Trump-led Republican Party got crushed in 2018, Trump himself lost in 2020, and Republicans underperformed in 2022. Despite a relatively strong economy during his presidency, Trump has never been popular. According to Gallup, Trump never topped 49 percent in his approval rating during his presidency. Not once. And it was often much lower. During his shambolic initial response to the pandemic and his regular appearances on The Trump Show, those lunatic pandemic-era daily press briefings, his approval rating fell to 39 percent. After rising a bit to 46 percent during the stretch run of the 2020 election (enough, of course, to still lose), Trump’s approval crashed to 36 percent after the January 6 riot.
Moreover, during the current 2024 cycle, Trump has never been close to popular, even when it looked like he might defeat the politically mortally wounded Biden campaign and regain the presidency after last June’s debate. In mid July, before Biden dropped out and while Trump was building what looked like a solid lead in the polls, Trump’s approval rating stood at 42 percent. Almost 54 percent of Americans told pollsters that they disapproved of Trump!
So why is anyone surprised that, with the American people having been given another option — an option that isn’t Joe Biden, isn’t Donald Trump, and isn’t a million years old — Trump is showing such weakness?
For twelve years, Donald Trump’s version of the Republican Party has acted like it’s a majority party when talking to itself, while its political and electoral strategy was always limited to “How can we squeeze by, by the hair of our chinny-chin-chin, in a few key swing states?”
Yes, again, Trump may yet win this November. He could slip by in Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest by a few thousand votes. Harris may falter. But even if Trump wins, Republicans should still understand that he will take power with a small, weak coalition that somehow managed to thread the needle.
Trump isn’t losing because Kamala Harris is being hyped by the press and fluffed up to kingdom come. He isn’t losing because the press is being unfair to him. He’s losing because he’s a weak, unpopular, undisciplined candidate running at the head of a weak, minority electoral coalition. That’s the truth, whether anyone wants to hear it or not.
The question for Republicans is: Are they ready to stop whining and complaining about the press and work to build a true majority coalition — like the ones they used to form — topped by young, charismatic, winsome candidates and built to win big, crushing majorities that turn blue states purple and purple states red? Because if they are, I’m not seeing any evidence for it. Are you?