Jonathan V. Last, who has always been bullish on Trump’s chances to win the GOP nomination in 2024, writes in the Bulwark that we don’t appreciate enough the fact that, for many voters, casting a vote for president is just deciding whether someone is plausible in the role. And because Donald J. Trump sat behind that desk for four years, he’s already cleared one of the highest bars.
I share with Last his view that Trump “gets the best of both worlds: He has passed the presidential test — Republican voters have seen him presidenting. But he’s also the insurgent candidate, because the Republican establishment hates him and is desperate for him to lose.”
JVL also writes, however:
In the Republican primary, Donald Trump has the largest and most durable lead of any “open” primary since the advent of modern polling. His lead is considerably larger (and so far more durable) than Hillary Clinton’s was in 2008. He not only has a consistent 30-plus point lead over his nearest rival, but he has been consistently above the 50-percent threshold, which is normally considered the tipping point for incumbent office holders seeking reelection.
I don’t know. Fifty percent is a good threshold for an incumbent to be running on in a general. But in a primary? Obviously, if Trump maintains 50+ percent, he wins. But strong incumbents are supposed to scare away primary challengers. And even if they’re foolish enough to go for it, the challengers are supposed to be marginal.
I would still put money on Trump to win today. Safest bet. But that national polling lead still feels like it could be disrupted and destroyed by events in the primary states. If I’m Trump, I’m thrilled at DeSantis’s apparently slow start. But I’m not comfortable yet.