Hey, remember Monday, when the Morning Jolt reported that the Moldovan region of Transnistria was not likely to declare itself a Russian colony? Well, Transnistria didn’t do that… but they took a modest step in that direction:
Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria called on Russia to step in and halt what it described as attempts by the government in Chisinau to bring the enclave back into its fold through exerting economic pressure.
Transnistria’s call for unspecified help from Moscow risks an escalation of the previously frozen conflict with the pro-European Union government of President Maia Sandu, while giving Russia an opening to intensify its hybrid attacks against Chisinau.
Still, the step falls well short of speculation that the region was about to call a referendum on joining the Russian Federation, a move that would echo sham votes staged in occupied territories of Ukraine.
Now, as the Bloomberg article above notes, Russia isn’t exactly in awash in options to help Transnistria, as the breakaway region is landlocked and surrounded by Moldova on one side, and Ukraine on the other. There’s no easy or unimpeded way to get anything to Transnistria, whether it’s economic goods or military supplies or troops. Back in April 2022, a Russian military commander involved in the invasion of Ukraine talked about establishing a land connection to Transnistria, but there’s a whole bunch of armed Ukrainians standing in the way of that goal.
As I described earlier this week:
There are Russian soldiers who serve as “peacekeepers” at the border checkpoints. (For the first time on my trip through the region, I saw Russian armored-personnel carriers that were in one piece.) Transnistria is reportedly home to 1,500 Russian soldiers, although it seems like it has been a while since anyone has published a reliable head count. The bad news for Moldova is that it ranks near the very bottom of all nations in terms of military firepower. The good news is, even if you rank near the bottom in military firepower, you can probably take out 1,500 guys. In fact, those 1,500 guys were recently characterized as “the least capable in all of the Russian army.” Note that Russia cannot easily resupply its forces in Transnistria, as Ukraine won’t let it fly anything in, nor will the Moldovans. Moldova’s not a NATO member, but Romania is, and there’s no way Romania would allow Russians to move military equipment, supplies, and ammunition through its territory, either.
Those Russian soldiers and those old arms depots may be less than they initially appear:
Nicu Popescu, Moldova’s foreign minister said an arms dump is situated in the village of Cobasna on the Ukrainian border.
But the age of the armaments would render most of them unusable in a conflict today, he said.
“We estimate 11,000 tonnes have expired and 9,000 tonnes are usable,” he said, adding no recent access had been granted, making an accurate assessment difficult.
…Of the 1,300 soldiers now stationed in Transnistria, 400 take part in a local peacekeeping mission. Of the total, only 50-100 are Russian soldiers dispatched from Russia, said Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.
Most of the remainder are locals who have been given Russian passports said Popescu.
It is hard to overstate how small and narrow Transnistria is. It has no commercial airports, and in some of the northern stretches, you can drive from the eastern border with Ukraine to the western border with Moldova within a matter of minutes. So to Russia, claiming Transnistria as a colony is probably too much risk for too little reward… for now. Six months from now, or a year, or two years down the road? Maybe not.