On Uncommon Knowledge this week, Michael Barone, editor of the Almanac on American Politics ever since that invaluable handbook first appeared some 40 years ago. Today Michael discusses one of the most striking events in the history of American politics, the way in which the Republicans and Democrats have swapped regional bases.
Compare the 1944 and 1988 presidential elections. Both elections were 53/46% wins for a party that had won the two or three previous elections. In both elections, the winning party’s strongest region was the South. For both of the winning parties, the second-strongest region was the West. In both elections, the winning party won or very narrowly lost big Northeastern and Midwestern states like New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois. One difference: the winning party in 1944 was the Democratic Party. The winning party in 1988 was the Republican Party. In 1970, when I was writing the first Almanac of American Politics, we were in the midst of this regional and demographic change.