The Silliness of the Epidemiologists

The New York Times has been surveying epidemiologists about their behavior during the pandemic and reporting the results, presumably so the rest of us can use these knowing experts as a guide. Instead the paper has revealed how incredibly risk-averse and ridiculous epidemiologists are. Indeed, a minority of them still seem to be in full-on crazy lockdown mode even as The Science reveals certain situations to be safe and vaccines eliminate most other risks.

Earlier this month, for example, the Times asked which activities these folks either had done in the past 30 days, or would be willing to do if necessary. Eight percent were still not running errands in person, and 17 percent still weren’t bringing in the mail “without precautions.” A quarter wouldn’t hike or gather outdoors with friends, while a third wouldn’t go to the doctor for a non-urgent appointment. Nearly half wouldn’t get a haircut, 70 percent weren’t eating indoors at restaurants, three-quarters wouldn’t fly, and 90 percent wouldn’t attend a wedding or funeral. And so on.

Now we have a survey of epidemiologists (along with some “pediatric infectious disease experts”) about how families with kids should navigate this phase of the pandemic, where the parents can be vaccinated if they want, but kids can’t.

We’ve known since the very beginning of the pandemic that kids face little risk from COVID: See, for instance, Philip Klein’s post yesterday about the incredibly low death rate for kids, as well as this piece about how COVID hospitalizations for kids are overestimated, despite already being far, far lower than hospitalizations for older age groups. And we’ve already ruined a year of life, including school, for the nation’s children. So you’d think there’d be some recognition of the tradeoffs here.

Not really.

Mask mandates are being dropped, so kids might encounter unmasked, unvaccinated adults in indoor (or crowded outdoor) public spaces. Four percent of the experts — one in 25! — think that neither kids nor their family members should even go to places where such threats could be lurking. Thirty percent — almost one in three! — say that kids shouldn’t go, but vaccinated family members can with masks. Another 12 percent would keep the kids home while allowing the adults to go unmasked. About half said the kids can go with masks, but only 2 percent said kids can go unmasked.

What about socializing indoors with other families? About a quarter rejected the possibility, answering the families should “maintain all Covid precautions.” Another quarter said nope, no unvaccinated kids should be put in such situations, though vaccinated adults can hang out. (Nice.) A third would simply limit the number of families involved, while only a tenth say it’s okay as long as all the adults are vaccinated.

Even when it comes to outdoor activities, a frightening minority of these folks don’t want kids to have interpersonal interactions. Three percent said children can “definitely not safely” do outdoor activities like swimming and eating at a barbecue, and 14 percent said kids “probably” couldn’t do such things safely. Most said it was “somewhat” safe, and only 14 percent called it flat-out “safe.” Similarly, more than a third think it’s “necessary” for unvaccinated kids to keep wearing masks outdoors while at parks or playing sports.

Professionals can tell us how viruses work and what risks they pose to us. They do not seem very reasonable when it comes to balancing those risks against the benefits of living a normal life.