It would be a mistake now to dismiss RFK Jr.’s potential to influence the outcome of the race.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Friday formally suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. There was a bit of nuance, as he said he was leaving his name on the ballot in noncompetitive states. But in swing states he will withdraw his name and urge his supporters to vote for Trump.
I explored the potential effect of his endorsing Trump in a post earlier this week and discussed it with Rich, Charlie, and Ramesh on the latest episode of The Editors.
As I noted, while RFK Jr.’s support seems to be around 3 to 6 percent, we don’t have detailed information on his voters in the crucial battleground states. However, if the race is as close in key states as it was in 2020 (when Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin were decided by a combined 43,000 votes), in theory, his withdrawal will put enough votes up for grabs to make the difference.
The major question is how many of RFK Jr. voters will follow him to Trump compared to how many are now going to stay home or defect to a different candidate. The most obvious assumption is that it will, at the minimum, create a marginal shift toward Trump that may be too small to be immediately detected by polls.
There is also the question of how it alters the conversation about the race. In his speech suspending his campaign, RFK Jr. attacked the Democratic Party as not being the party of his father and uncle, decrying the efforts to stifle dissent and keep him off ballots. He also lashed out at the media for being not much more than stenographers for Democrats. So with the endorsement, he is essentially validating Trump’s arguments about the “rigged” system to a different constituency.
On the other hand, embracing RFK Jr. carries its risks, as it will enable Democrats to tie Trump to a lot of RFK Jr.’s outlandish ideas.
I believe that early on, the RFK Jr. factor was being overstated as he had impressive poll numbers that had some analysts speculating he might even be able to beat President Biden in New Hampshire. That was silly, but it would be a mistake now to overcorrect and underestimate RFK Jr.’s potential to influence the outcome of a close race.